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Home › Italy › Serie A › Parma — Lecce

Parma vs Lecce 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Parma
Parma
Home · last 5 W L L L W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Oct · 13:00
0:1
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
D W L W W Away · last 5
Stadio Ennio Tardini · Parma Referee Daniele Doveri, Italy
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 51% · book 2.12 ✓
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 28% · book 4.00 ✗
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 24% · book 4.74 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.97 – 0.47
Δ +0.50
Possession
63% – 37%
AI accuracy
5 / 7
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.74 — +11.4% better than the market.

Parma vs Lecce: the hosts carry the edge on venue and recent stability, but the gap is modest and points to a tight, low-event game. Draw stays live, with limited attacking separation and conservative risk profiles on both sides.

Our model leans to unders and a guarded double-chance on the visitors’ side at the price. Main swing factor: first goal. If it comes early, game state opens; if not, parity and low totals gain equity.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 4.74 ✓ Cashed
AI 24% Implied 21% +3.74u
+374%
ROI on stake

Lineups

PAR 3-5-2 · LEC 4-3-3
PAR · 3-5-2 4-3-3 · LEC 31 Suzuki 15 Del Prato 39 Circati 3 Ndiaye 27 Britschgi 22 Sorensen 16 Keita 10 Bernabe 14 Valeri 32 Cutrone 9 Pellegrino 30 Falcone 17 Veiga 4 Gaspar 44 Gabriel 25 Gallo 29 Coulibaly 20 Ramadani 10 Berisha 50 Pierotti 9 Stulic 23 Sottil ⚽
Subs used · PAR
26' Lovik ↑ · Valeri ↓
46' Almqvist ↑ · Britschgi ↓
67' Benedyczak ↑ · Sorensen ↓
84' Estevez ↑ · Bernabe ↓
84' Djuric ↑
Subs used · LEC
68' Banda ↑ · Sottil ↓
76' Camarda ↑ · Stulic ↓
88' Ndaba ↑ · Berisha ↓
88' Kaba ↑ · Coulibaly ↓

Statistics

PAR 0 – 1 LEC
63%
Possession (%)
37%
0.97
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.47
10
Total Shots
7
2
Shots on Target
3
6
Shots off Target
3
7
Shots Inside Box
4
4
Corner Kicks
9
2
Offsides
2
16
Fouls
16
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
66%
1
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

13 · 0 – 1
M. Lovik ↓ · E. Valeri ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
26'
38'
⚽
R. Sottil
Assist · A. Gallo · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
P. Almqvist ↓ · S. Britschgi ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
A. Benedyczak ↓ · O. Sorensen ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
67'
68'
⇄
L. Banda ↓ · R. Sottil ↑
Substitution 1
76'
⇄
F. Camarda ↓ · N. Stulic ↑
Substitution 2
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Yellow Card
▮
82'
N. Estevez ↓ · A. Bernabe ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
M. Djuric ↓ ·
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
88'
⇄
C. Ndaba ↓ · M. Berisha ↑
Substitution 3
88'
⇄
M. Kaba ↓ · L. Coulibaly ↑
Substitution 4
90+2'
▮
Lameck Banda
Yellow Card
90+7'
▮
Kialonda Gaspar
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Lecce won 1–0 away at Parma. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 81% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 0.97 to 0.47. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Sottil (38').

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 5 landed and 2 missed, for a net +4.74 units (Brier 0.222).

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 5 W · 2 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 2.12 — 51% Cashed +1.12 Cashed
Draw 4.00 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.74 — 24% Cashed +3.74 Cashed
BTTS No 1.83 — 57% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.78 — 58% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.27 — 78% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Home Win 1.90 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 2 L +4.74u +68% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
PAR – LEC @ 4.74
+11.4%
Edge
Forecast →