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Home Italy Serie A Juventus — Atalanta

Match Juventus vs Atalanta September 27, 2025 — Result and Stats

Italy   /   Serie A
Juventus
Juventus
Home · last 5 D D W L D
Kick-off
Sat 27 Sep · 16:00
1:1
Full-time
Atalanta
Atalanta
L D W L D Away · last 5
Allianz Stadium · Torino Referee Simone Sozza, Italy
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 55% · book 1.94
Hit
Draw
Draw
AI 23% · book 3.74
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 23% · book 4.27
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.52 – 0.72
Δ +0.80
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
5 / 10
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This matchup features two strong sides with solid recent form and attacking capabilities. Juventus enjoys a clear home advantage and has been consistent in scoring, while Atalanta shows a slightly better overall strength and defensive solidity. The game is expected to be competitive with a moderate tempo and quality chances at both ends. The probabilities favor a home win but keep the draw well in play, reflecting Juventus’ home edge and Atalanta’s resilience. Goals are likely, supporting the over 2.5 goals market, and both teams scoring is a realistic scenario given their attacking profiles.

Value is found primarily in the home win and Asian handicap markets, where the odds slightly underestimate Juventus’ chances. Totals and BTTS markets offer balanced opportunities but with less clear value. The safest approach combines a home win or double chance with over 2.5 goals for a balanced risk-reward profile.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

JUV 3-4-2-1 · ATA 3-4-2-1
Subs used · JUV
58' Vlahović ↑ · Adžić
58' McKennie ↑ · Thuram
64' Mário ↑ · Gatti
64' Zhegrova ↑ · Openda
76' Cabal ↑ · Bremer
Subs used · ATA
61' Ketelaere ↑ · Sulemana
76' Musah ↑ · Samardžić
82' Brescianini ↑ · Krstović

📊 Statistics

JUV 11 ATA
67%
Possession (%)
33%
1.52
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.72
24
Total Shots
12
10
Shots on Target
2
6
Shots off Target
7
12
Shots Inside Box
6
14
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
0
6
Fouls
7
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
0
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
9

Match events

14 · 1 – 1
32'
Marten de Roon
Yellow Card
45+1'
Kamaldeen Sulemana
0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
Dušan Vlahović ↓ · Vasilije Adžić ↑
Substitution 1
58'
Weston McKennie ↓ · Khéphren Thuram ↑
Substitution 2
58'
61'
Charles De Ketelaere ↓ · Kamaldeen Sulemana ↑
Substitution 1
João Mário ↓ · Federico Gatti ↑
Substitution 3
64'
Edon Zhegrova ↓ · Loïs Openda ↑
Substitution 4
64'
Juan Cabal ↓ · Bremer ↑
Substitution 5
76'
76'
Yunus Musah ↓ · Lazar Samardžić ↑
Substitution 2
Juan Cabal
1–1
78'
80'
Marten de Roon
Yellow Card
80'
Marten de Roon
Red Card
82'
Marco Brescianini ↓ · Nikola Krstović ↑
Substitution 3
87'
Davide Zappacosta
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Juventus and Atalanta drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.52 to 0.72. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 12, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 14 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Kamaldeen Sulemana (45+1'), Juan Cabal (78'). Marten de Roon was sent off in the 80' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 5 landed and 5 missed, for a net -0.33 units (Brier 0.233).

Bet recap · markets settled

10 · 5 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.94 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.74 23% Cashed +2.74 Cashed
Away Win 4.27 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.07 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.91 60% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.42 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.27 78% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.22 85% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Away Team Total Over 0.5 1.53 75% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
AH Home -0.5 1.94 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 10 markets @ 1u each 5 W · 5 L −0.33u −3% ROI