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Home Scotland Premiership Motherwell — Aberdeen

Preview Motherwell vs Aberdeen September 15, 2026 — Preview and Prediction

Scotland   /   Premiership Value pick inside
Motherwell
Motherwell
Home · last 5 W D D W L
Kick-off
Tue 15 Sep · 18:45
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
W L L L D Away · last 5
Fir Park · Motherwell
Home Win · MOT
42%
Best 1.83
Draw
27%
Best 3.80
Away Win · ABE
31%
Best 4.50

🧠 Model verdict

Model leans toward Under 2.5 goals — 55% probability.

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

AI preview · 90 sec read

Motherwell hosts Aberdeen in a tightly contested Premiership clash at Fir Park. Recent form shows Aberdeen with a slight edge, carrying momentum from a win while Motherwell has drawn and won recently. The match hints at a balanced pace with moderate goal expectations, supported by historical low-scoring encounters. Motherwell’s home resilience and Aberdeen’s sharper recent attack create a tactical chess match likely favoring cautious play.

  • Home side’s compact defense may limit chances
  • Aberdeen’s pressing edge could unlock tight spaces
  • Moderate tempo suggests fewer high-risk plays

Most likely outcomes

What the model rates as most likely in each market.

Market Prob. % Pred.
1X2 42% Motherwell win
Over/Under 2.5 55% Under 2.5
BTTS 51% Yes
Double Chance 69% 1X
  • 1X2 Motherwell win 42%
  • Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55%
  • BTTS Yes 51%
  • Double Chance 1X 69%
Open betting analysis

Recent form

Last 5 matches · all competitions
Motherwell
W/D/L 2-2-1
Goals (for / against) 8 / 5
Avg goals / match 2.6
Scored in 3/5
Clean sheets 2/5
Both teams scored 2/5
Over 2.5 3/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-1-0
Away (W-D-L) 1-1-1
xG (for / against) 1.69 / 1.54
Aberdeen
W/D/L 1-1-3
Goals (for / against) 2 / 7
Avg goals / match 1.8
Scored in 1/5
Clean sheets 1/5
Both teams scored 1/5
Over 2.5 2/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-1-1
Away (W-D-L) 0-0-2
xG (for / against) 1.14 / 1.81

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.60
Goals Scored
0.40
1
Goals Conceded
1.40
1.01
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
4.80
Shots on Target
2.40
5
Corners
5
56.80
Possession (%)
48.20
Efficiency index
Adjusted index
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
83
OFF · home
17
100
DEF · home
58
58
OFF · away
0
33
DEF · away
8
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

🎯 Scenario insights

Motherwell wins when scoring first
Aberdeen wins when scoring first
Motherwell BTTS rate · last 10
50%
Aberdeen BTTS rate · last 10
30%
Motherwell Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
Aberdeen Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
Motherwell comeback rate · last 10
0%
Aberdeen comeback rate · last 10
25%

🔥 Goal timing

Aberdeen · last 1 away

0–15 0%
16–30 0%
31–45 0%
46–60 0%
61–75 0%
76–90 0%
Not enough finished matches yet to highlight a scoring pattern.

Top scorers

I. Said
MOT · Attacker
1 G · 0.50 g/90
L. Fadinger
MOT · Midfielder
1 G · 1.00 g/90
K. Nisbet
ABE · Attacker
1 G · 0.49 g/90
L. Mayo
ABE · Defender
1 G · 0.58 g/90