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Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia 2:5: Match Review & Stats

Poland   /   Ekstraklasa Value pick inside
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
Home · last 5 L W L L L
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug · 12:45
2:5
Full-time
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
L W L L L Away · last 5
Referee Patryk Gryckiewicz, Poland
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.30 ✗
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 56% · book 1.75 ✓
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 44% · book 2.01 ✗
Total goals
7
2 · 5
xG (open play)
1.24 – 4.44
Δ −3.20
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
3 / 7
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.30 — +3.5% better than the market.

Raków Częstochowa faces a tough challenge against Jagiellonia, who show better recent form with two wins in their last three. Raków’s struggles at home and lack of momentum contrast with Jagiellonia’s sharper attack and more consistent performances. Expect a cautious game with Jagiellonia likely to press for control, exploiting Raków’s defensive vulnerabilities.

  • Jagiellonia’s recent form edge offers confidence
  • Raków’s home woes may limit attacking threat
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.30 ✗ Lost
AI 45% Implied 43% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

RAK 2 – 5 JAG
46%
Possession (%)
54%
1.24
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
4.44
13
Total Shots
20
4
Shots on Target
10
7
Shots off Target
7
12
Shots Inside Box
16
5
Corner Kicks
5
9
Fouls
15
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
1
Yellow Cards
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match recap

Jagiellonia won 5–2 away at Raków Częstochowa. At half-time it was 1–2.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 4.44 to 1.24. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 13, 10 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 3 landed and 4 missed, for a net -0.39 units (Brier 0.259).

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 3 W · 4 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.30 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.75 — 56% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Home Win 2.01 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.30 — 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.56 — 55% Cashed +0.56 Cashed
Away Win 3.30 — 31% Cashed +2.30 Cashed
Draw 3.70 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each — — — 3 W · 4 L −0.39u −6% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
RAK – JAG @ 2.30
+3.5%
Edge
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