Match Lech Poznan vs Nieciecza March 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.81 — +10.3% better than the market.

Lech Poznan enters this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Nieciecza. Their attacking prowess faces a less resilient away defense, suggesting chances to break through. The home side’s compact block and pressing edge could exploit Nieciecza’s struggles on the road, while the match pace hints at a moderately open game with goal opportunities.

Home form and quality advantage
Attacking pressure vs away defense
Moderate tempo favors dynamic play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.81 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 55% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEC 4-2-3-1 · TER 3-4-1-2

LEC · 4-2-3-1 3-4-1-2 · TER

9 Ishak

📊 Statistics

LEC 4 – 1 TER

68%

Possession (%)

32%

3.27

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Lech Poznan beat Nieciecza 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.27 to 1.33. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 26 shots to 10, 9 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.99 units (Brier 0.105).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.81	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.45	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	58%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.12	—	39%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.98	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.42	—	71%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.50	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.14	—	89%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.00	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.40	—	61%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.16	—	71%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Under 0.5	22.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.27	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	95%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.13	—	82%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Away Win	6.53	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.25	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.99u	−35% ROI