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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Nacional — Famalicao

Predictions by Market: Nacional vs Famalicao

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 14:30
0:4
Full-time
Famalicao
Famalicao
L D D D W Away · last 5
Estádio da Madeira · Funchal Referee Gustavo Fernandes Correia

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · NAC
33%
Best 3.88
Draw
27%
Best 3.40
Away Win · FAM
44%
Best 2.10
Value pick
Home Win
@ 3.24
Fair odds
3.07
book 3.24 · +5.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 33% · EV +5.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (44%), but Home Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 43.7%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 32.6%
Odds 3.24
Show model details
Implied probability 30.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 27.1%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 29.8%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 43.7%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
NAC – FAM @ 3.24
+5.5%
Edge
Forecast →