Casa Pia vs FC Porto 1:4 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.32 — +9.5% better than the market.

FC Porto arrives with strong momentum, boasting a flawless recent run contrasting sharply with Casa Pia's struggles. The visitors' attacking edge and higher scoring rate suggest they will control the game, while Casa Pia's defense may be tested heavily. Expect Porto to press high and exploit set-pieces, though Casa Pia could rely on a compact block to limit damage.

Porto's winning streak highlights confidence and sharpness
Casa Pia's poor form points to defensive vulnerabilities
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured attacks over frantic transitions

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.32 ✗ Lost

AI 47% Implied 43% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

CAS 4-2-3-1 · POR 4-3-3

CAS · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · POR

9 Araújo ⚽

Subs used · CAS

68'

Maurin ↑ ·

Pauwels ↓

74'

Pedro ↑ ·

Boukammiri ↓

74'

Cassiano ↑ ·

Araújo ↓

88'

Zouin ↑ ·

Rego ↓

Subs used · POR

62'

Sainz ↑ ·

Gomes ↓

62'

Giménez ↑ ·

Silva ↓

70'

Varela ↑ ·

In-Beom ↓

80'

Fofana ↑ ·

Veiga ↓

80'

Fernandes ↑ ·

Costa ↓

Statistics

CAS 1 – 4 POR

38%

Possession (%)

62%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 1 – 4

Henrique Araújo (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

43'

45'

▮

Jakub Kiwior

Yellow Card

45+3'

⚽

André Silva

Assist · Pablo Rosario · 1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira

Yellow Card

▮

53'

Andre Geraldes

Yellow Card

▮

54'

60'

⚽

Jakub Kiwior

Assist · Gabri Veiga · 1–2

62'

⇄

Borja Sainz ↓ · William Gomes ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

Santiago Giménez ↓ · André Silva ↑

Substitution 2

66'

⚽

Borja Sainz

1–3

Evans Maurin ↓ · Benjamin Pauwels ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

70'

⇄

Alan Gonzalo Varela ↓ · Hwang In-Beom ↑

Substitution 3

João Pedro ↓ · Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

Cassiano ↓ · Henrique Araújo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

80'

⇄

Seko Fofana ↓ · Gabri Veiga ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

Martim Fernandes ↓ · Alberto Costa ↑

Substitution 5

David Sousa

Yellow Card

▮

87'

Aymen Zouin ↓ · João Rego ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

Ivan Mandic

Yellow Card

▮

90'

90+1'

⚽

Santiago Giménez (P)

Penalty · 1–4

Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

FC Porto won 4–1 away at Casa Pia. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Henrique Araújo (43'), André Silva (45+3'), Jakub Kiwior (60'), Borja Sainz (66'), Santiago Giménez (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.00 units (Brier 0.159).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.32	2.30	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.60	1.60	53%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.35	2.31	38%	Cashed	+1.35	Cashed
Home Win	12.95	14.08	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	3.80	4.44	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	8.40	9.01	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.53	1.56	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.03	1.03	86%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Away Win	1.24	1.18	68%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.48	2.50	31%	Cashed	+1.48	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.03	1.02	68%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	5.82	6.76	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.00	4.50	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.47	1.50	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.85	15.87	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.02	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	1.18	74%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.00u	−29% ROI

Casa Pia vs FC Porto 1:4: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled