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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Academico Viseu — Guimaraes

Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
Home · last 5 L W W W W
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sep · 19:30
2:1
Full-time
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
W L D L D Away · last 5
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 63% · book 1.74 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.91 ✗
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 57% · book 1.70 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.12 — +14.5% better than the market.

Academico Viseu hosts Guimaraes in a clash where home momentum could be key. Viseu’s recent form shows resilience with a mix of wins and draws, while Guimaraes struggles for consistency. The match hints at a cautious tempo, supported by odds favoring fewer goals. Expect a compact defensive setup from both sides, with limited attacking breakthroughs.

  • Home side’s steadier recent form offers a slight edge.
  • Both teams likely to prioritize defensive solidity.
  • Under 2.5 goals seems a reasonable expectation given the pace.

Guimaraes will look to exploit set-piece chances but may find it tough to break down a disciplined home block.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.12 ✗ Lost
AI 37% Implied 32% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ACA 4-1-4-1 · GUI 4-2-3-1
ACA · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · GUI 98 Ewerton 75 Robinho 41 Correia 2 Michelis 57 Costa 7 Silva 31 Guilherme 14 Messeguem 8 Kahraman 47 Gohi ⚽ 33 Clóvis 48 Zych 23 Strata 28 Balieiro 5 Sidibé 13 Mendes 16 Beni 44 Doucet 7 Camara 20 Samu 11 Gustavo 9 Jakupovic
Subs used · ACA
68' Mestanza ↑ · Kahraman ↓
68' Mortimer ↑ · Gohi ↓
90' Domingos ↑ · Robinho ↓
90' Bouldini ↑ · Clóvis ↓
90+4' Barcelos ↑ · Costa ↓
Subs used · GUI
45' Nogueira ↑ · Doucet ↓
60' Guimarães ↑ · Mukendi ↓
77' Ndoye ↑ · Jakupović ↓
77' Nogueira ↑ · Camara ↓
84' Borevković ↑ · Sidibé ↓

Statistics

ACA 2 – 1 GUI
46%
Possession (%)
54%
11
Total Shots
22
4
Shots on Target
7
4
Shots off Target
12
9
Shots Inside Box
12
4
Corner Kicks
8
3
Offsides
1
14
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
3
6
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

21 · 2 – 1
28'
▮
Lohann Doucet
Yellow Card
45'
⇄
Gonçalo Nogueira ↓ · Lohann Doucet ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
Lorougnon Gohi
1–0
⚽
53'
60'
⇄
Alan de Souza Guimarães ↓ · Beni Mukendi ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⚽
Gonçalo Nogueira
Assist · Alan de Souza Guimarães · 1–1
Alejandro Mestanza ↓ · Cihan Kahraman ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
Nils Mortimer ↓ · Lorougnon Gohi ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
75'
▮
Arnel Jakupović
Yellow Card
André Clóvis
Yellow Card
▮
76'
77'
⇄
Alioune Ndoye ↓ · Arnel Jakupović ↑
Substitution 3
77'
⇄
Miguel Nogueira ↓ · Oumar Camara ↑
Substitution 4
Alejandro Mestanza
Yellow Card
▮
80'
84'
⇄
Toni Borevković ↓ · Ahmed Sidibé ↑
Substitution 5
Luis Silva
Yellow Card
▮
86'
88'
▮
Toni Borevković
Yellow Card
Tomas Domingos ↓ · Robinho ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
90'
Mohamed Bouldini ↓ · André Clóvis ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90'
Mohamed Bouldini
2–1
⚽
90+3'
Pedro Barcelos ↓ · Gustavo Costa ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+4'
90+5'
▮
Alioune Ndoye
Red Card
Nils Mortimer
Yellow Card
▮
90+5'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Academico Viseu beat Guimaraes 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 11, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Lorougnon Gohi (53'), Gonçalo Nogueira (67'), Mohamed Bouldini (90+3'). Alioune Ndoye was sent off in the 90+5' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.61 units (Brier 0.231).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.74 1.67 63% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.91 1.83 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.70 1.78 57% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Away Win 2.14 2.02 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.81 1.89 44% Cashed +0.81 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.12 2.15 37% Cashed +1.12 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.76 2.76 28% Cashed +1.76 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.12 3.00 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.80 8.47 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.25 1.26 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.46 1.46 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.40 3.75 30% Cashed +2.40 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.24 1.22 81% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 1.06 87% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 3.25 3.34 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.32 1.36 63% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.65 3.77 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.61u −9% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ACA – GUI @ 3.12
+14.5%
Edge
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