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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Guimaraes — Casa Pia

Predictions by Market: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W L D L D
Kick-off
Sun 06 Sep · 17:00
0:0
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L D L W L Away · last 5
Referee G. Correia

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · GUI
57%
Best 1.50
Draw
25%
Best 4.36
Away Win · CAS
21%
Best 7.50
Value pick
Away Win
@ 5.25
Fair odds
4.69
book 5.25 · +12.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 21% · EV +12.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (56%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 56.5%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 21.3%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 24.7%
Odds 3.84
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 17.6%
Odds 5.48
Show model details
Implied probability 18.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 58%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
GUI – CAS @ 5.25
+12.0%
Edge
Forecast →