Alverca vs Santa Clara 1:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.36 — +13.4% better than the market.

Alverca hosts Santa Clara in a Primeira Liga clash where recent form favors the visitors, who bring a bit more momentum with two wins and a draw in their last three. Alverca’s home edge is modest, but their defensive resilience could be tested by Santa Clara’s sharper attack. Expect a balanced game with signs of cautious pressing and a moderate pace, likely yielding a few goal opportunities on both ends.

Santa Clara’s recent form suggests growing confidence
Alverca’s home defense may face pressure
Moderate tempo hints at a tactical, measured contest

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 2.36 ✗ Lost

AI 48% Implied 42% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-2-1 · SAN 4-2-3-1

ALV · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · SAN

9 Semedo ⚽

Subs used · ALV

21'

Spencer ↑ ·

Touaizi ↓

62'

Moreira ↑ ·

Luccas ↓

74'

J. Merheg ↑ ·

Semedo ↓

75'

Gomez ↑ ·

Chissumba ↓

75'

Essimi ↑ ·

Vidigal ↓

Subs used · SAN

63'

Vitinho ↑ ·

Ribeiro ↓

63'

Brenner ↑ ·

Sorriso ↓

71'

Fernando ↑ ·

Paciencia ↓

71'

Torrao ↑ ·

Lopes ↓

85'

Jaco ↑ ·

Tavares ↓

Statistics

ALV 1 – 1 SAN

50%

Possession (%)

50%

0.41

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.41

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 1 – 1

D. Spencer ↓ · N. Touaizi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

21'

Half-time · 0 – 0

60'

▮

E. Fernandes

Yellow Card

V. Moreira ↓ · Ian Luccas ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

63'

⇄

Vitinho ↓ · T. Ribeiro ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

Brenner ↓ · Sorriso ↑

Substitution 2

V. Semedo

Assist · I. James · 1–0

⚽

69'

71'

⇄

Fernando ↓ · G. Paciencia ↑

Substitution 3

71'

⇄

Welinton Torrao ↓ · Vinicius Lopes ↑

Substitution 4

S. J. Merheg ↓ · V. Semedo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

S. Gomez ↓ · Chissumba ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

75'

M. Essimi ↓ · A. Vidigal ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

75'

85'

⇄

Leo Jaco ↓ · J. Tavares ↑

Substitution 5

87'

⚽

Brenner

Assist · Welinton Torrao · 1–1

Figueiredo

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

▮

Brenner

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Alverca and Santa Clara drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.41 to 0.41. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 5, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Semedo (69'), Brenner (87').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.79 units (Brier 0.148).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.36	2.50	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.88	2.01	53%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Home Win	2.78	2.67	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.58	2.84	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.82	1.72	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.60	1.53	52%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.69	2.50	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.99	1.85	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.88	2.02	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.47	1.40	64%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.42	1.46	64%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.30	5.00	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.20	3.00	28%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	1.47	72%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	1.07	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.18	1.17	73%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Under 0.5	7.40	6.99	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.79u	−22% ROI

Alverca vs Santa Clara 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled