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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Casa Pia — Moreirense

Casa Pia vs Moreirense 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L D L W L
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug · 17:00
0:1
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
L L W D L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee L. M. Branco Godinho
Hit
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 44% · book 2.66 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 69% · book 1.61 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 62% · book 1.80 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.77 – 0.28
Δ +0.49
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.61 — +11.8% better than the market.

Casa Pia faces Moreirense with clear home momentum despite recent struggles, while Moreirense shows signs of steadier form. The tactical battle may lean on Casa Pia's pressing edge at home against Moreirense's more cautious approach. Expect a compact game with limited chances, reflected in the market's lean towards under 2.5 goals and a low-scoring affair.

  • Casa Pia's home resilience versus Moreirense's away caution
  • Recent form favors Moreirense but sample is small
  • Likely tight defensive setups and measured pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.61 ✓ Cashed
AI 69% Implied 62% +0.61u
+61%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CAS 4-2-3-1 · MOR 4-2-3-1
CAS · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · MOR 31 Gomes 18 Geraldes 4 Goulart 43 Sousa 75 Rosas 16 Clúa 80 Ofori 19 Prieto 70 Rêgo 10 Rochinha 20 Jatta 13 Ferreira 76 Pinto 66 Batista 26 Maracás 27 Kiko ⚽ 23 John 65 Liberato 11 Landerson 20 Veloso 7 Mendonça 9 Parsemain
Subs used · CAS
46' Dafe ↑ · Rochinha ↓
61' Cassiano ↑ · Prieto ↓
78' Perez ↑ · Clua ↓
78' Pauwels ↑ · Rego ↓
78' Araujo ↑ · Jatta ↓
Subs used · MOR
65' Rodri ↑ · John ↓
65' Andrade ↑ · Landerson ↓
77' Santos ↑ · Kiko ↓
78' Stjepanovic ↑ · Mendonca ↓
82' Monteiro ↑ · Veloso ↓

Statistics

CAS 0 – 1 MOR
62%
Possession (%)
38%
0.77
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.28
14
Total Shots
6
2
Shots on Target
5
10
Shots off Target
1
10
Shots Inside Box
3
5
Corner Kicks
1
3
Offsides
0
14
Fouls
18
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
60%
1
Yellow Cards
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

15 · 0 – 1
24'
⚽
Kiko
Assist · J. Veloso · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
A. Dafe ↓ · Rochinha ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
P. Rosas
Yellow Card
▮
61'
Cassiano ↓ · K. Prieto ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
62'
▮
Kiko
Yellow Card
65'
⇄
Rodri ↓ · N. John ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
T. Andrade ↓ · Landerson ↑
Substitution 2
71'
▮
Rodri
Yellow Card
75'
▮
Aranha
Yellow Card
77'
⇄
L. Santos ↓ · Kiko ↑
Substitution 3
S. Perez ↓ · S. Clua ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
78'
78'
⇄
M. Stjepanovic ↓ · M. Mendonca ↑
Substitution 4
B. Pauwels ↓ · J. Rego ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
78'
H. Araujo ↓ · A. Jatta ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
78'
82'
⇄
Kevyn Monteiro ↓ · J. Veloso ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Moreirense won 1–0 away at Casa Pia. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 80% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 6, 2 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Kiko (24').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.57 units (Brier 0.170).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 1.5 2.66 2.62 44% Cashed +1.66 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.61 1.53 69% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
BTTS No 1.80 1.75 62% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.54 1.42 62% Cashed +0.54 Cashed
Home Win 2.43 2.78 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.89 1.88 37% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.95 1.98 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.36 2.45 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 7.70 7.09 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.69 2.69 37% Cashed +1.69 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.44 1.44 63% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.20 3.05 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.40 1.44 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.18 1.18 88% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.98 1.98 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 1.07 78% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.28 4.50 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.57u −15% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
CAS – MOR @ 1.61
+11.8%
Edge
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