🧠 Model verdict
Model leans toward Under 2.5 goals — 69% probability.
Also rated highly: both teams not to score 62%.
Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.
AI preview · 90 sec read
Casa Pia faces Moreirense with clear home momentum despite recent struggles, while Moreirense shows signs of steadier form. The tactical battle may lean on Casa Pia's pressing edge at home against Moreirense's more cautious approach. Expect a compact game with limited chances, reflected in the market's lean towards under 2.5 goals and a low-scoring affair.
- Casa Pia's home resilience versus Moreirense's away caution
- Recent form favors Moreirense but sample is small
- Likely tight defensive setups and measured pace
✓ Most likely outcomes
What the model rates as most likely in each market.
| Market | Prob. % | Pred. |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 41% | Casa Pia win |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 69% | Under 2.5 |
| BTTS | 62% | No |
| Double Chance | 69% | 1X |
- 1X2 Casa Pia win 41%
- Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69%
- BTTS No 62%
- Double Chance 1X 69%
📈 Odds movement · 1X2
72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
≡ Recent form
Last 5 matches · all competitions
Casa Pia
W/D/L
1-1-3
Goals (for / against)
2 / 10
Avg goals / match
2.4
Scored in
1/5
Clean sheets
2/5
Both teams scored
0/5
Over 2.5
1/5
Home (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Away (W-D-L)
0-1-2
xG (for / against)
0.50 / 2.01
Moreirense
W/D/L
1-2-2
Goals (for / against)
5 / 10
Avg goals / match
3.0
Scored in
2/5
Clean sheets
1/5
Both teams scored
2/5
Over 2.5
3/5
Home (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Away (W-D-L)
0-0-2
xG (for / against)
0.71 / 1.85
⚔ Head-to-Head Performance
last 10 H2H · per matchEff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.
📡 Team strength
0–100 rating vs league · season-to-dateEach axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.
🎯 Scenario insights
①
Casa Pia wins when scoring first
67%
①
Moreirense wins when scoring first
50%
⚽
Casa Pia BTTS rate · last 10
20%
⚽
Moreirense BTTS rate · last 10
40%
↑
Casa Pia Over 2.5 · last 10
20%
↑
Moreirense Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
↩
Casa Pia comeback rate · last 10
0%
↩
Moreirense comeback rate · last 10
33%
🔥 Goal timing
Casa Pia · last 10 at home
0–15
11%
16–30
22%
31–45
44%
46–60
0%
61–75
0%
76–90
22%
Moreirense · last 10 away
0–15
25%
16–30
25%
31–45
0%
46–60
25%
61–75
25%
76–90
0%
First-half-heavy — over half the goals before the break.
