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SC Braga vs Guimaraes 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
SC Braga
SC Braga
Home · last 5 W L W D L
Kick-off
Mon 31 Aug · 19:15
1:0
Full-time
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
W L D L D Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Braga · Braga Referee Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 51% · book 2.10 ✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 54% · book 1.95 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 56% · book 1.86 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.83 – 0.23
Δ +0.60
Possession
54% – 46%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.10 — +6.5% better than the market.

SC Braga hosts Guimaraes in a Primeira Liga clash where home momentum is slightly tempered by a recent draw, while Guimaraes shows signs of resilience with a win in their last three. The tactical battle may hinge on Braga's ability to break down a compact Guimaraes defense, as both sides have shown balanced form. Expect a moderately paced game with potential for goals given the openness suggested by recent encounters.

  • Home side's pressing edge could create chances
  • Guimaraes' defensive solidity may limit clear-cut opportunities
  • Moderate tempo likely to favor tactical discipline over frantic attack

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 2.10 ✗ Lost
AI 51% Implied 48% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BRA 3-4-2-1 · GUI 4-2-3-1
Subs used · BRA
65' Milosevic ↑ · Victor ↓
72' Rodrigues ↑ · Dorgeles ↓
72' Marques ↑ · E. Tiknaz ↓
86' Navarro ↑ · Travassos ↓
86' Bajrami ↑ · Silva ↓
Subs used · GUI
62' Camara ↑ · Nogueira ↓
62' Mukendi ↑ · Nogueira ↓
76' Andersson ↑ · Gustavo ↓
77' Ouotro ↑ · Ndoye ↓
84' Arcanjo ↑ · Samu ↓

Statistics

BRA 1 – 0 GUI
54%
Possession (%)
46%
0.83
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.23
9
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Target
2
1
Shots off Target
5
6
Shots Inside Box
2
2
Corner Kicks
2
5
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
18
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
75%
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 1 – 0
4'
▮
O. Rivas Viondi
Yellow Card
D. E. Tiknaz
Yellow Card
▮
37'
Half-time · 0 – 0
53'
▮
T. Strata
Yellow Card
62'
⇄
O. Camara ↓ · M. Nogueira ↑
Substitution 1
62'
⇄
B. Mukendi ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑
Substitution 2
J. Milosevic ↓ · P. Victor ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
Vitor Carvalho
Yellow Card
▮
68'
D. Rodrigues ↓ · M. Dorgeles ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
72'
T. Marques ↓ · D. E. Tiknaz ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
72'
75'
▮
Gustavo
Yellow Card
76'
⇄
V. Andersson ↓ · Gustavo ↑
Substitution 3
77'
⇄
P. Ouotro ↓ · A. Ndoye ↑
Substitution 4
D. Rodrigues
Assist · Gabriel Silva · 1–0
⚽
79'
84'
⇄
T. Arcanjo ↓ · Samu ↑
Substitution 5
F. Navarro ↓ · Travassos ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
A. Bajrami ↓ · Gabriel Silva ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
86'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

SC Braga beat Guimaraes 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 0.83 to 0.23. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Rodrigues (79').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.34 units (Brier 0.214).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 2.10 1.91 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.95 2.05 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.86 1.86 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.85 1.75 46% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
Home Win 1.72 1.84 49% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
BTTS No 1.91 1.89 44% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Away Win 4.90 4.39 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.26 3.50 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.18 1.19 74% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 1.30 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 1.04 93% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 3.69 3.40 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.40 3.40 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.29 1.25 68% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.40 3.10 23% Cashed +2.40 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.50 9.01 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.27 1.33 49% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.34u −20% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
BRA – GUI @ 2.10
+6.5%
Edge
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