Benfica vs Estoril 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 1.88 — +10.5% better than the market.

Benfica enters this clash with clear home momentum, showing stronger recent form and a notable attacking edge over Estoril’s defense. The hosts’ ability to create chances and capitalize on set-pieces could exploit Estoril’s fragile backline. Expect a lively tempo given the market’s lean towards goals, with Benfica’s pressing likely to unsettle the visitors early on.

Home side’s superior form and attacking threat
Estoril’s defensive vulnerabilities
High goal expectancy suggests open play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 1.88 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 53% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

BEN 4-2-3-1 · EST 3-4-3

BEN · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · EST

14 Pavlidis ⚽

Subs used · BEN

31'

Palhinha ↑ ·

Barrenechea ↓

63'

Schjelderup ↑ ·

Silva ↓

80'

Duran ↑ ·

Pavlidis ↓

80'

Moreira ↑ ·

Sudakov ↓

80'

Lukebakio ↑ ·

Prestianni ↓

Subs used · EST

46'

Holsgrove ↑ ·

Xeka ↓

71'

Carvalho ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

71'

Peixinho ↑ ·

Lacximicant ↓

71'

Garcia ↑ ·

Andreou ↓

82'

Guitane ↑ ·

Medrano ↓

Statistics

BEN 2 – 1 EST

66%

Possession (%)

34%

2.03

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.36

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

14 · 2 – 1

J. Palhinha ↓ · E. Barrenechea ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

31'

V. Pavlidis

1–0

⚽

40'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

J. Holsgrove ↓ · Xeka ↑

Substitution 1

C. Lenglet

Assist · T. Araujo · 2–0

⚽

51'

A. Schjelderup ↓ · Rafa Silva ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

71'

⇄

P. Carvalho ↓ · R. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 2

71'

⇄

Peixinho ↓ · A. Lacximicant ↑

Substitution 3

71'

⇄

F. Garcia ↓ · S. Andreou ↑

Substitution 4

75'

▮

I. Sierra

Yellow Card

J. Duran ↓ · V. Pavlidis ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

G. Moreira ↓ · G. Sudakov ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

D. Lukebakio ↓ · G. Prestianni ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

82'

⚽

Y. Begraoui

Assist · F. Medrano · 2–1

82'

⇄

R. Guitane ↓ · F. Medrano ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Benfica beat Estoril 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.03 to 0.36. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 4, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

On the scoresheet: V. Pavlidis (40'), C. Lenglet (51'), Y. Begraoui (82').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.32 units (Brier 0.106).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	1.88	1.73	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.99	1.95	51%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
BTTS No	1.75	1.76	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	2.10	2.10	39%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Away Win	17.00	19.61	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	6.00	6.25	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	12.00	14.93	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	9.23	10.00	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.02	1.02	88%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Home Win	1.13	1.10	75%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.03	1.02	75%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.05	3.50	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.33	1.29	77%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.08	1.06	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.70	8.00	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−5.32u	−35% ROI

Benfica vs Estoril 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled