Match GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia August 24, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 5.13 — +5.7% better than the market.

GIL Vicente arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a perfect recent record and higher expected goals, signaling attacking confidence. Casa Pia struggles on the road with poor form and limited offensive threat, suggesting a tactical edge for the hosts. The matchup hints at a compact defensive setup from Casa Pia, likely keeping the game tight and favoring under 2.5 goals.

Home side's pressing edge and recent wins
Away team's low scoring and form dip
Likely cautious pace with defensive discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 5.13 ✗ Lost

AI 21% Implied 20% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

VIC 4-2-3-1 · CAS 4-3-3

VIC · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · CAS

23 Hernández ⚽

Subs used · VIC

60'

Prioste ↑ ·

Lausen ↓

60'

Souza ↑ ·

Fernandes ↓

74'

Eduardo ↑ ·

Hernandez ↓

74'

Carlos ↑ ·

Caseres ↓

79'

Moreira ↑ ·

Pinto Martins ↓

Subs used · CAS

60'

Cassiano ↑ ·

Araujo ↓

69'

Mendes ↑ ·

Jatta ↓

69'

Gabi ↑ ·

Perez ↓

77'

Rosas ↑ ·

Conte ↓

77'

Dafe ↑ ·

Rochinha ↓

📊 Statistics

VIC 2 – 0 CAS

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.74

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.76

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 2 – 0

G. Pinto Martins

Assist · H. Hernandez · 1–0

⚽

20'

35'

▮

S. Perez

Yellow Card

H. Hernandez (P)

Penalty · 2–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 0

60'

⇄

Cassiano ↓ · H. Araujo ↑

Substitution 1

D. Prioste ↓ · A. Lausen ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

60'

Murilo de Souza ↓ · J. Fernandes ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

69'

⇄

C. Mendes ↓ · A. Jatta ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

Gabi ↓ · S. Perez ↑

Substitution 3

Carlos Eduardo ↓ · H. Hernandez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

Ze Carlos ↓ · F. Caseres ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

74'

77'

⇄

P. Rosas ↓ · A. Conte ↑

Substitution 4

77'

⇄

A. Dafe ↓ · Rochinha ↑

Substitution 5

A. Moreira ↓ · G. Pinto Martins ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

M. Elimbi

Yellow Card

▮

82'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

GIL Vicente beat Casa Pia 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.74 to 0.76. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 8, 2 on target.

On the scoresheet: G. Pinto Martins (20'), H. Hernandez (45').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.96 units (Brier 0.105).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.63	1.62	62%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
BTTS No	1.64	1.66	61%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.72	2.62	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.10	2.12	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.72	1.70	54%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.32	2.35	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.13	2.10	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.13	5.43	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.17	1.15	79%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.19	1.20	81%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Under 0.5	7.30	8.00	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	1.05	87%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.50	3.45	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.39	1.39	64%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.17	4.20	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.65	3.75	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.24	1.23	54%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.96u	−35% ROI