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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Moreirense — Benfica

Predictions by Market: Moreirense vs Benfica

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 L L W D L
Kick-off
Wed 09 Sep · 19:45
0:4
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W W W L Away · last 5

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MOR
13%
Best 18.00
Draw
15%
Best 9.85
Away Win · BEN
72%
Best 1.15
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.25
Fair odds
6.51
book 7.25 · +11.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 15% · EV +11.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (72%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win
Probability 13%
Odds 16.50
Show model details
Implied probability 6.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 15.4%
Odds 7.25
Show model details
Implied probability 13.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 37.3%
Odds 2.63
Show model details
Implied probability 38%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 41.2%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 62.7%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.2%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 17.4%
Odds 5.53
Show model details
Implied probability 18.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 82.6%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4.8%
Odds 19.25
Show model details
Implied probability 5.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 60.9%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 39.1%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 13%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 28.4%
Odds 5.23
Show model details
Implied probability 19.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 87%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
MOR – BEN @ 7.25
+11.3%
Edge
Forecast →