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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Le Mans — Lorient

Le Mans vs Lorient 2:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Le Mans
Le Mans
Home · last 5 L D D W L
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Lorient
Lorient
L W D L W Away · last 5
MMArena · Le Mans Referee Geoffrey Kubler
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 2.00 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 2.14 ✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 39% · book 2.38 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.00 — +14.4% better than the market.

Le Mans hosts Lorient in a Ligue 1 clash where both sides show similar form, but Lorient holds a slight edge in recent points per game. The home side’s compact defense might keep things tight, while Lorient’s more consistent attack could test their resilience. Expect a cautious tempo with under 2.5 goals likely, as both teams have struggled to convert chances efficiently.

  • Le Mans’ home solidity vs Lorient’s attacking consistency
  • Recent form favors Lorient slightly
  • Low-scoring match probable given defensive setups

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.00 ✗ Lost
AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LE- 3-1-4-2 · LOR 3-4-2-1
Subs used · LE-
58' Calodat ↑ · Larouci ↓
59' Gueye ↑ · Diallo ↓
72' Rabillard ↑ · Bretelle ↓
72' Lauray ↑ · Vercruysse ↓
85' Brahimi ↑ · Bourabaa ↓
Subs used · LOR
17' Bris ↑ · Katseris ↓
65' Faye ↑ · Bernardeau ↓
65' Kone ↑ · Balde ↓
75' Jensen ↑ · Makengo ↓
75' Obaretin ↑ · Adjei ↓

Statistics

LE- 2 – 1 LOR
51%
Possession (%)
49%
11
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Target
2
3
Shots off Target
6
6
Shots Inside Box
6
1
Corner Kicks
3
0
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

19 · 2 – 1
Adil Bourabaa
Assist · Rayan Bamba · 1–0
⚽
3'
11'
▮
Jean-Victor Makengo
Yellow Card
17'
⇄
Théo Le Bris ↓ · Panos Katseris ↑
Substitution 1
19'
▮
Arsène Kouassi
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
Habib Diallo
Yellow Card
▮
51'
Habib Diallo
Assist · Lucas Bretelle · 2–0
⚽
57'
Lucas Calodat ↓ · Yasser Larouci ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
58'
Dame Gueye ↓ · Habib Diallo ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
59'
61'
▮
Arthur Avom
Yellow Card
65'
⇄
Souleymane Faye ↓ · Gabin Bernardeau ↑
Substitution 2
65'
⇄
Mamadou Kone ↓ · Ibrahima Balde ↑
Substitution 3
Antoine Rabillard ↓ · Lucas Bretelle ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
72'
Alexandre Lauray ↓ · Jean Vercruysse ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
72'
Djibril Sidibé
Yellow Card
▮
74'
75'
⇄
Isak Jensen ↓ · Jean-Victor Makengo ↑
Substitution 4
75'
⇄
Nosa Edward Obaretin ↓ · Nathaniel Adjei ↑
Substitution 5
Adil Bourabaa
Yellow Card
▮
78'
78'
⚽
Isak Jensen
Assist · Arsène Kouassi · 2–1
Bilal Brahimi ↓ · Adil Bourabaa ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Le Mans beat Lorient 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Adil Bourabaa (3'), Habib Diallo (57'), Isak Jensen (78').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.34 units (Brier 0.223).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.00 1.98 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.14 2.16 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.38 2.62 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.65 1.66 48% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.80 1.91 43% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.14 2.04 34% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.79 1.86 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.55 1.50 61% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.78 3.75 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.38 1.36 77% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Home Win 2.89 2.79 34% Cashed +1.89 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.38 1.40 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.94 3.10 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.40 3.30 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.25 1.26 68% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −2.34u −16% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
LE- – LOR @ 2.00
+14.4%
Edge
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