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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Stade Brestois 29 — Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse 2:2: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
Home · last 5 D W L L W
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug · 18:45
2:2
Full-time
Toulouse
Toulouse
D L D W D Away · last 5
Stade Francis-Le-Blé · Brest Referee J. Brisard
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 2.00 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 65% · book 1.74 ✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 37% · book 2.65 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
2.74 – 1.12
Δ +1.62
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.74 — +13.2% better than the market.

Stade Brestois 29 shows a slight home momentum with a recent draw, while Toulouse struggles with form, having lost their last five. The match hints at a balanced contest with a mild edge to Brest’s home resilience. Expect a moderately open game given the odds favoring over 2.5 goals, suggesting both sides may find opportunities in attack.

  • Home side’s compact block could challenge Toulouse’s offense.
  • Toulouse’s recent form may limit their pressing effectiveness.
  • Potential for set-piece moments to influence the scoreline.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 1.74 ✓ Cashed
AI 65% Implied 57% +0.74u
+74%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BRE 4-2-3-1 · TOU 4-2-3-1
BRE · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · TOU 1 Selvik 70 Lala 4 Lloris 71 Le Guen 2 Locko 6 Diambou 13 Chotard 10 Del Castillo 23 Doumbia ⚽ 9 Mboup 19 Ajorque ⚽ 16 Restes 94 Diallo 3 McKenzie 2 Nicolaisen 12 Tapé ⚽ 23 Cásseres 6 Vossah 7 Vignolo 8 Jørgensen 10 Gboho 13 Russell-Rowe ⚽
Subs used · BRE
67' Balde ↑ · Del Castillo ↓
75' Nonge ↑ · Doumbia ↓
75' Magnetti ↑ · Diambou ↓
83' C. Laine M. ↑ · Mboup ↓
83' Tousart ↑ · Lloris ↓
Subs used · TOU
46' Messali ↑ · Diallo ↓
60' Schmidt ↑ · Vossah ↓
67' Oppong ↑ · Vignolo ↓
78' Hidalgo ↑ · Russell-Rowe ↓
78' Koumbassa ↑ · Jorgensen ↓

Statistics

BRE 2 – 2 TOU
51%
Possession (%)
49%
2.74
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.12
25
Total Shots
6
7
Shots on Target
2
11
Shots off Target
3
15
Shots Inside Box
4
7
Corner Kicks
2
5
Offsides
0
19
Fouls
18
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

19 · 2 – 2
9'
⚽
J. Russell-Rowe
Assist · Y. Gboho · 0–1
K. Doumbia
Assist · M. Diambou · 1–1
⚽
18'
B. Locko
Yellow Card
▮
31'
P. Mboup
Yellow Card
▮
44'
Half-time · 1 – 1
46'
⇄
R. Messali ↓ · I. Diallo ↑
Substitution 1
45+3'
▮
C. Casseres
Yellow Card
60'
⇄
N. Schmidt ↓ · A. Vossah ↑
Substitution 2
62'
⚽
C. Tape
Assist · C. Casseres · 1–2
67'
⇄
S. Oppong ↓ · J. Vignolo ↑
Substitution 3
M. Balde ↓ · R. Del Castillo ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
67'
J. Nonge ↓ · K. Doumbia ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
75'
H. Magnetti ↓ · M. Diambou ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
78'
⇄
S. Hidalgo ↓ · J. Russell-Rowe ↑
Substitution 4
78'
⇄
S. Koumbassa ↓ · T. Jorgensen ↑
Substitution 5
L. C. Laine M. ↓ · P. Mboup ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
83'
L. Tousart ↓ · G. Lloris ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
83'
89'
▮
N. Schmidt
Yellow Card
90+4'
▮
R. Nicolaisen
Yellow Card
L. Ajorque
Assist · H. Magnetti · 2–2
⚽
90+5'
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.74 to 1.12. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 6, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Russell-Rowe (9'), K. Doumbia (18'), C. Tape (62'), L. Ajorque (90+5').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.19 units (Brier 0.157).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.00 1.91 60% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.74 1.72 65% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
Away Win 2.65 2.69 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.61 2.61 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.80 1.91 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.95 1.95 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.04 2.06 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.95 1.95 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.38 3.40 41% Cashed +2.38 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.50 1.47 64% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.47 1.44 63% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.29 1.28 83% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 1.04 94% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 3.40 3.34 27% Cashed +2.40 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.29 1.30 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.38 3.50 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 10.00 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.19u −7% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
BRE – TOU @ 1.74
+13.2%
Edge
Forecast →