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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Lyon — Le Havre

Lyon vs Le Havre 1:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Lyon
Lyon
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug · 18:45
1:1
Full-time
Le Havre
Le Havre
D L D L L Away · last 5
Referee F. Letexier
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 60% · book 1.87 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 2.10 ✓
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 43% · book 2.67 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.70 – 0.66
Δ +1.04
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.67 — +14.1% better than the market.

Lyon arrives with strong home momentum after a recent win, while Le Havre struggles on the road, showing signs of defensive fragility. The home side's pressing edge and better form suggest they can control the pace and limit chances conceded. Expect a compact Lyon block to frustrate Le Havre’s attack, with a moderate goal environment hinted by odds favoring under 2.5 goals.

  • Lyon’s home confidence and recent win
  • Le Havre’s away struggles and defensive lapses
  • Likely tactical control by Lyon with a cautious tempo

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 2.67 ✓ Cashed
AI 43% Implied 38% +1.67u
+167%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LYO 4-2-3-1 · HAV 3-4-2-1
LYO · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · HAV 1 Greif 13 Athekame 20 Bacher 19 Niakhaté 3 Tagliafico 2 Bidstrup 23 Morton 7 Nuamah 8 Tolisso 26 Boudache 17 Openda ⚽ 77 Mpasi 32 Pembélé 15 Seko 5 Touba 14 Ndiaye 26 Ebonog 6 Mwanga 7 Richardson 17 Mizuta 25 Samatta ⚽
Subs used · LYO
61' Fofana ↑ · Boudache ↓
62' Nartey ↑ · Bidstrup ↓
80' Sulc ↑ · Nuamah ↓
80' Vinicius ↑ · Tagliafico ↓
Subs used · HAV
65' Doucoure ↑ · Ouziad ↓
65' Maja ↑ · Mizuta ↓
76' K. Vinette ↑ · Pembele ↓
76' Nakamura ↑ · Ebonog ↓

Statistics

LYO 1 – 1 HAV
57%
Possession (%)
43%
1.70
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.66
15
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
5
12
Shots Inside Box
8
5
Corner Kicks
5
5
Offsides
3
7
Fouls
16
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
0
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

12 · 1 – 1
41'
▮
A. Seko
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
M. Fofana ↓ · K. Boudache ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
N. Nartey ↓ · M. Bidstrup ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
62'
65'
⇄
F. Doucoure ↓ · D. Ouziad ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
J. Maja ↓ · K. Mizuta ↑
Substitution 2
74'
⚽
A. Samatta
Assist · F. Doucoure · 0–1
76'
⇄
E. K. Vinette ↓ · T. Pembele ↑
Substitution 3
76'
⇄
S. Nakamura ↓ · S. Ebonog ↑
Substitution 4
P. Sulc ↓ · E. Nuamah ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
80'
Abner Vinicius ↓ · N. Tagliafico ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
L. Openda
Assist · Z. Athekame · 1–1
⚽
87'
90+7'
▮
F. Doucoure
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Lyon and Le Havre drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.70 to 0.66.

On the scoresheet: A. Samatta (74'), L. Openda (87').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -0.21 units (Brier 0.211).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.87 1.87 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.10 2.10 55% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.67 2.62 43% Cashed +1.67 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.75 1.73 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.87 1.87 40% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
Away Win 6.93 6.62 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.92 4.33 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.39 1.40 77% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.11 1.12 79% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Home Win 1.46 1.47 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.00 4.93 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.88 2.75 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.42 4.50 22% Cashed +3.42 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.23 1.21 66% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.15 1.15 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −0.21u −1% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
LYO – HAV @ 2.67
+14.1%
Edge
Forecast →