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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lazio — Monza

Predictions by Market: Lazio vs Monza

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 W W D W W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 13:00
3:1
Full-time
Monza
Monza
L D L W L Away · last 5
Stadio Olimpico · Rome Referee Guiseppe Collu

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LAZ
62%
Best 1.78
Draw
23%
Best 4.01
Away Win · MON
15%
Best 4.88
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 3.23
Fair odds
2.99
book 3.23 · +8.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 33% · EV +8.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (67%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 61.8%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Draw
Probability 23%
Odds 3.90
Show model details
Implied probability 25.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 14.9%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 55.2%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 44.8%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 33.5%
Odds 3.23
Show model details
Implied probability 31%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 77.8%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 79.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.4%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 22.2%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 6.6%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No
Probability 41.9%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 61.8%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 14.9%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 34%
Odds 2.34
Show model details
Implied probability 42.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 89%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 88.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
LAZ – MON @ 3.23
+8.2%
Edge
Forecast →