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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lazio — Monza

Lazio vs Monza 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 W W D W W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 13:00
3:1
Full-time
Monza
Monza
L D L W L Away · last 5
Stadio Olimpico · Rome Referee Guiseppe Collu
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.91 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 58% · book 1.70 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 45% · book 1.91 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
1.59 – 1.91
Δ −0.32
Possession
66% – 34%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.23 — +8.2% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 3.23 ✓ Cashed
AI 33% Implied 31% +2.23u
+223%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LAZ 4-3-3 · MON 3-4-2-1
LAZ · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · MON 35 Mandas 15 Floriani Mussolini 5 Doekhi 25 Provstgaard 17 Tavares ⚽ 16 Frattesi 21 Belahyane 24 Taylor 11 Isaksen ⚽ 14 Noslin 10 Zaccagni 1 Törnqvist 60 Kouadio 3 Lucchesi 44 Carboni 19 Birindelli 90 Folorunsho 14 Akinsanmiro 7 Mangas 16 Ngonge 22 Zeballos 9 Varela
Subs used · LAZ
53' Leite ↑ · Doekhi ↓
60' Dele-Bashiru ↑ · Frattesi ↓
60' Šutalo ↑ · Provstgaard ↓
75' Pedraza ↑ · Tavares ↓
75' Pinamonti ↑ · Noslin ↓
Subs used · MON
36' Goglichidze ↑ · Ngonge ↓
45' Maye ↑ · Carboni ↓
45' Mota ↑ · Zeballos ↓
45' Ondoa ↑ · Folorunsho ↓
70' Bakoune ↑ · Mangas ↓

Statistics

LAZ 3 – 1 MON
66%
Possession (%)
34%
1.59
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.91
17
Total Shots
14
7
Shots on Target
6
8
Shots off Target
3
8
Shots Inside Box
10
7
Corner Kicks
6
0
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

20 · 3 – 1
Nuno Tavares
Assist · Tijjani Noslin · 1–0
⚽
3'
13'
▮
Andrea Carboni
Yellow Card
Gustav Isaksen
Assist · Tijjani Noslin · 2–0
⚽
23'
35'
▮
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Red Card
36'
⇄
Saba Goglichidze ↓ · Cyril Ngonge ↑
Substitution 1
45'
⇄
Yvan Maye ↓ · Andrea Carboni ↑
Substitution 2
45'
⇄
Dany Mota ↓ · Exequiel Zeballos ↑
Substitution 3
45'
⇄
Foe Ondoa ↓ · Michael Folorunsho ↑
Substitution 4
Half-time · 2 – 0
46'
⚽
Saba Goglichidze
Assist · Dany Mota · 2–1
Danilho Doekhi
Yellow Card
▮
45+2'
Diogo Leite ↓ · Danilho Doekhi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
53'
Oliver Provstgaard
Yellow Card
▮
55'
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru ↓ · Davide Frattesi ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
Josip Šutalo ↓ · Oliver Provstgaard ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
60'
Diogo Leite
Yellow Card
▮
68'
70'
⇄
Adam Bakoune ↓ · Ricardo Mangas ↑
Substitution 5
Alfonso Pedraza ↓ · Nuno Tavares ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
Andrea Pinamonti ↓ · Tijjani Noslin ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
75'
79'
▮
Ivan Juric
Yellow Card
Andrea Pinamonti
Assist · Alfonso Pedraza · 3–1
⚽
88'
Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Lazio beat Monza 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Nuno Tavares (3'), Gustav Isaksen (23'), Saba Goglichidze (46'), Andrea Pinamonti (88'). Lorenzo Lucchesi was sent off in the 35' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.73 units (Brier 0.133).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.91 1.80 55% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.70 1.70 58% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.91 2.05 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.08 2.07 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.34 2.12 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.73 1.73 62% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.23 2.88 33% Cashed +2.23 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.14 1.18 89% Cashed +0.14 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.27 1.27 62% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 1.22 78% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 1.04 93% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.90 3.85 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.32 1.40 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.60 4.00 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.00 12.05 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.75 4.74 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.45 3.45 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.73u −22% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
LAZ – MON @ 3.23
+8.2%
Edge
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