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Home › Italy › Serie A › AC Milan — Lecce

AC Milan vs Lecce 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 W D D W D
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 18:45
3:0
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
L L W L L Away · last 5
Referee Federico La Penna, Italy
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 52% · book 2.10 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.62 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 41% · book 2.25 ✗
Total goals
3
3 · 0
xG (open play)
1.93 – 0.17
Δ +1.76
Possession
69% – 31%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.10 — +8.7% better than the market.

Serie A Preview: AC Milan vs Lecce

AC Milan enters this clash with solid home momentum, showing resilience in recent matches. Lecce’s away form is patchy, struggling to maintain consistency, which could be exploited by Milan’s compact block and pressing edge. The match hints at a moderate tempo with a decent chance for goals, supported by both sides’ tendency to find the net. Expect Milan’s home advantage and sharper form to shape the game, while Lecce may rely on counter-attacks and set-piece threats.

  • Home momentum and defensive solidity favor Milan
  • Lecce’s inconsistency away may limit their threat
  • Moderate pace suggests balanced chances for goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 2.10 ✗ Lost
AI 52% Implied 48% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MIL 3-4-2-1 · LEC 4-3-3
MIL · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · LEC 16 Maignan 34 Gila 5 Winter 31 Pavlović 21 Chukwueze 14 Modrić 12 Rabiot ⚽ 2 Estupiñán 11 Pulišić ⚽ 56 Saelemaekers 9 Ramos 30 Falcone 17 Veiga 4 Gaspar 5 Siebert 25 Gallo 29 Coulibaly 20 Ilić 14 Maleh 50 Pierotti 9 Štulić 99 Monteiro
Subs used · MIL
70' Moreira ↑ · Saelemaekers ↓
70' Loftus-Cheek ↑ · Pulisic ↓
76' Musah ↑ · Modric ↓
76' Bartesaghi ↑ · Estupinan ↓
89' Camarda ↑ · Chukwueze ↓
Subs used · LEC
46' Esteban ↑ · Stulic ↓
70' Fatah ↑ · Monteiro ↓
70' Ngom ↑ · Maleh ↓
70' Kaba ↑ · Ilic ↓
82' Ndri ↑ · Pierotti ↓

Statistics

MIL 3 – 0 LEC
69%
Possession (%)
31%
1.93
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.17
10
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Target
3
2
Shots off Target
1
8
Shots Inside Box
4
2
Corner Kicks
3
4
Offsides
1
9
Fouls
15
91%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
0
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

14 · 3 – 0
C. Pulisic
Assist · S. Pavlovic · 1–0
⚽
14'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
P. Esteban ↓ · N. Stulic ↑
Substitution 1
58'
▮
D. Veiga
Yellow Card
A. Rabiot
Assist · G. Ramos · 2–0
⚽
61'
D. Moreira ↓ · A. Saelemaekers ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
70'
R. Loftus-Cheek ↓ · C. Pulisic ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
70'
70'
⇄
A. Fatah ↓ · J. Monteiro ↑
Substitution 2
70'
⇄
O. Ngom ↓ · Y. Maleh ↑
Substitution 3
70'
⇄
M. Kaba ↓ · I. Ilic ↑
Substitution 4
D. Moreira
3–0
⚽
73'
Y. Musah ↓ · L. Modric ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
D. Bartesaghi ↓ · P. Estupinan ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
82'
⇄
K. Ndri ↓ · S. Pierotti ↑
Substitution 5
F. Camarda ↓ · S. Chukwueze ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
89'
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

AC Milan beat Lecce 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.93 to 0.17. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 6, 4 on target.

On the scoresheet: C. Pulisic (14'), A. Rabiot (61'), D. Moreira (73').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.52 units (Brier 0.097).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 2.10 2.09 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.62 1.62 60% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.25 2.38 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.67 1.68 48% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.84 3.77 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 9.00 10.99 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.50 2.50 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.07 1.04 85% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Home Win 1.25 1.25 77% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.09 1.04 64% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Draw 4.88 5.99 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.43 7.30 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.24 1.17 79% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 1.03 93% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.52 1.52 62% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.84 4.50 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.00 14.93 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −6.52u −38% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
MIL – LEC @ 2.10
+8.7%
Edge
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