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Home › Italy › Serie A › Fiorentina — Napoli

Fiorentina vs Napoli 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Home · last 5 L L W D L
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 10:30
1:1
Full-time
Napoli
Napoli
L L W D W Away · last 5
Referee Daniele Doveri, Italy
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 48% · book 1.99 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 53% · book 2.00 ✓
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 58% · book 1.65 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.94 – 1.45
Δ −0.51
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.00 — +5.3% better than the market.

Fiorentina hosts Napoli in a Serie A clash where Napoli's recent form and away momentum stand out. Fiorentina struggles with consistency, while Napoli shows signs of regaining strength despite patchy results. The tactical battle may hinge on Napoli's ability to exploit Fiorentina's defensive lapses and control the midfield tempo.

  • Napoli's sharper recent performances suggest a pressing edge.
  • Fiorentina's home form lacks stability, limiting their attacking threat.
  • Expect a moderately paced game with cautious build-up and set-piece opportunities.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.00 ✓ Cashed
AI 53% Implied 50% +1.00u
+100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

FIO 4-2-3-1 · NAP 4-2-3-1
FIO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · NAP 43 Gea 20 Jiménez ⚽ 3 Drăguşin 6 Ranieri 33 Viery 14 Atta 44 Fagioli 27 Ndour 30 Mastantuono 25 Njie 32 Pellegrino 32 Milinković-Savić 22 Lorenzo 13 Rrahmani 16 Marín 17 Olivera 6 Gilmour ⚽ 68 Lobotka 21 Politano 11 Bruyne 70 Lang 19 Højlund
Subs used · FIO
46' Valdepenas ↑ · Viery ↓
66' Pote ↑ · Atta ↓
66' Beto ↑ · Pellegrino ↓
80' Gnonto ↑ · Njie ↓
85' Pongracic ↑ · Ranieri ↓
Subs used · NAP
58' Lucca ↑ · Hojlund ↓
58' Neres ↑ · Lang ↓
73' Favasuli ↑ · Politano ↓
90' Anguissa ↑ · Lobotka ↓

Statistics

FIO 1 – 1 NAP
42%
Possession (%)
58%
0.94
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.45
17
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Target
5
10
Shots off Target
7
10
Shots Inside Box
11
4
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
9
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
89%
3
Yellow Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

14 · 1 – 1
23'
⚽
B. Gilmour
Assist · M. Politano · 0–1
F. Mastantuono
Yellow Card
▮
42'
Half-time · 0 – 1
V. Valdepenas ↓ · Viery ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
A. Jimenez
Assist · C. Ndour · 1–1
⚽
51'
58'
⇄
L. Lucca ↓ · R. Hojlund ↑
Substitution 1
58'
⇄
David Neres ↓ · N. Lang ↑
Substitution 2
L. Ranieri
Yellow Card
▮
62'
Pote ↓ · A. Atta ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
Beto ↓ · M. Pellegrino ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
66'
73'
⇄
C. Favasuli ↓ · M. Politano ↑
Substitution 3
W. Gnonto ↓ · A. Njie ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
D. de Gea
Yellow Card
▮
83'
M. Pongracic ↓ · L. Ranieri ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
90'
⇄
F. Anguissa ↓ · S. Lobotka ↑
Substitution 4
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Fiorentina and Napoli drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.45 to 0.94. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 13, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: B. Gilmour (23'), A. Jimenez (51').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.26 units (Brier 0.152).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.99 2.15 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.00 2.00 53% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.65 1.62 58% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.00 1.87 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.18 2.25 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.66 52% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.40 2.35 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.62 1.63 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.35 1.36 69% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Home Win 3.25 3.25 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.31 1.36 73% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 1.04 91% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 1.25 72% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.36 3.80 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.33 3.00 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.35 3.40 27% Cashed +2.35 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 10.99 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.26u −19% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
FIO – NAP @ 2.00
+5.3%
Edge
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