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Home › Italy › Serie A › Monza — Sassuolo

Predictions by Market: Monza vs Sassuolo

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Monza
Monza
Home · last 5 L D L W L
Kick-off
Fri 18 Sep · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
W D W L D Away · last 5
U-Power Stadium · Monza Referee D. Perenzoni

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MON
34%
Best 2.84
Draw
27%
Best 3.40
Away Win · SAS
40%
Best 2.72
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.77
Fair odds
2.53
book 2.77 · +9.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 40% · EV +9.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (64%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 39.5%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 33.8%
Odds 2.78
Show model details
Implied probability 36%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 26.8%
Odds 3.37
Show model details
Implied probability 29.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 61%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 42%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 39.5%
Odds 2.77
Show model details
Implied probability 36.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 79.6%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.5%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 63.7%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 76.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 20.4%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 6.5%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 60.1%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No
Probability 39.9%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 40.6%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 59%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 33.8%
Odds 2.03
Show model details
Implied probability 49.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 60.5%
Odds 1.54
Show model details
Implied probability 64.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 66.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
MON – SAS @ 2.77
+9.5%
Edge
Forecast →