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Home › Italy › Serie A › Monza — Sassuolo

Monza vs Sassuolo 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Monza
Monza
Home · last 5 L D L W L
Kick-off
Fri 18 Sep · 18:45
2:1
Full-time
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
W D W L D Away · last 5
U-Power Stadium · Monza Referee D. Perenzoni
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 61% · book 1.73 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.69 ✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 39% · book 2.50 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.45 – 1.58
Δ −0.13
Possession
35% – 65%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.77 — +9.5% better than the market.

Monza hosts Sassuolo in a Serie A clash where recent form slightly favors the visitors, who have shown more consistency and attacking threat. Monza’s home momentum is limited, but their compact block could challenge Sassuolo’s offensive attempts. The balanced odds and past tight encounters suggest a competitive match with a moderate pace and potential for goals.

  • Sassuolo’s better recent form offers a pressing edge.
  • Monza’s defensive setup may limit space.
  • Odds hint at a balanced, moderately open game.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 2.77 ✗ Lost
AI 40% Implied 36% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MON 3-4-2-1 · SAS 4-3-3
MON · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · SAS 1 Törnqvist 60 Kouadio 3 Lucchesi 44 Carboni 19 Birindelli 90 Folorunsho 14 Akinsanmiro 7 Mangas 10 Cutrone 46 Robinson 9 Varela ⚽ 49 Murić 46 Cinquegrano 16 Leysen 15 Ćaleta-Car 3 Doig 42 Thorstvedt 18 Matić 50 Bakola 10 Berardi 94 Esposito 45 Laurienté
Subs used · MON
56' Mota ↑ · Cutrone ↓
56' Bakoune ↑ · Mangas ↓
56' Ondoa ↑ · Akinsanmiro ↓
82' Mout ↑ · Robinson ↓
90+3' Maye ↑ · Birindelli ↓
Subs used · SAS
64' Bowie ↑ · Thorstvedt ↓
64' Lipani ↑ · Matic ↓
72' Dominguez ↑ · Berardi ↓
72' Adzic ↑ · Esposito ↓
82' Skjellerup ↑ · Bakola ↓

Statistics

MON 2 – 1 SAS
35%
Possession (%)
65%
1.45
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.58
15
Total Shots
20
6
Shots on Target
8
6
Shots off Target
7
8
Shots Inside Box
13
7
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
1
13
Fouls
6
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
4
Yellow Cards
1
7
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

18 · 2 – 1
E. Kouadio
Yellow Card
▮
30'
Half-time · 0 – 0
G. Varela
Assist · S. Birindelli · 1–0
⚽
51'
D. Mota ↓ · P. Cutrone ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
56'
A. Bakoune ↓ · R. Mangas ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
56'
F. Ondoa ↓ · E. Akinsanmiro ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
56'
G. Varela (P)
Penalty · 2–0
⚽
63'
64'
⇄
K. Bowie ↓ · K. Thorstvedt ↑
Substitution 1
64'
⇄
L. Lipani ↓ · N. Matic ↑
Substitution 2
72'
⇄
B. Dominguez ↓ · D. Berardi ↑
Substitution 3
72'
⇄
V. Adzic ↓ · S. Esposito ↑
Substitution 4
M. Folorunsho
Yellow Card
▮
74'
M. Mout ↓ · J. Robinson ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
82'
82'
⇄
L. Skjellerup ↓ · D. Bakola ↑
Substitution 5
85'
▮
L. Lipani
Yellow Card
S. Birindelli
Yellow Card
▮
85'
88'
⚽
V. Adzic
2–1
G. Varela
Yellow Card
▮
90+2'
Y. Maye ↓ · S. Birindelli ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+3'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Monza beat Sassuolo 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 15, 8 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Varela (51'), G. Varela (63'), V. Adzic (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.62 units (Brier 0.170).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.73 1.73 61% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.69 1.57 60% Cashed +0.69 Cashed
Away Win 2.50 2.62 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.78 2.71 34% Cashed +1.78 Cashed
BTTS No 2.07 2.26 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.91 2.10 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.70 1.93 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.03 1.96 34% Cashed +1.03 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.54 1.47 61% Cashed +0.54 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.40 1.44 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.77 2.77 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.27 1.22 80% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 94% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.37 3.34 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.32 1.40 64% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.60 4.20 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 10.00 12.50 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.62u −21% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
MON – SAS @ 2.77
+9.5%
Edge
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