P
Prognosist
P
Home › Italy › Serie A › Lazio — AC Milan

Predictions by Market: Lazio vs AC Milan

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 W W D W W
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sep · 16:00
2:2
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
W D D W D Away · last 5
Referee Matteo Marcenaro, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LAZ
34%
Best 3.90
Draw
28%
Best 3.29
Away Win · MIL
38%
Best 2.20
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 4.19
Fair odds
3.76
book 4.19 · +11.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 27% · EV +11.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (73%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 38.3%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 33.7%
Odds 3.28
Show model details
Implied probability 30.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 28%
Odds 3.18
Show model details
Implied probability 31.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 48.2%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 51.8%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 26.6%
Odds 4.19
Show model details
Implied probability 23.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 27.9%
Odds 2.87
Show model details
Implied probability 34.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 72.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 73.4%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 83%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 9%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No
Probability 47.6%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 30.8%
Odds 2.68
Show model details
Implied probability 37.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 41.3%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 61.8%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 69.2%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 79.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
LAZ – MIL @ 4.19
+11.4%
Edge
Forecast →