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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lazio — AC Milan

Lazio vs AC Milan 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 W W D W W
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sep · 16:00
2:2
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
W D D W D Away · last 5
Referee Matteo Marcenaro, Italy
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.20 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 52% · book 1.92 ✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 38% · book 2.30 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
2.05 – 1.09
Δ +0.96
Possession
34% – 66%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 4.19 — +11.4% better than the market.

Lazio enter this Serie A clash with strong home momentum, boasting a perfect recent record and higher points per game. Their attacking edge could challenge AC Milan's defense, although Milan's solid form and resilience suggest a tightly contested match. Expect tactical discipline and a balanced pace, with both sides capable of creating chances.

  • Lazio's home confidence and attacking threat
  • Milan's recent form and defensive solidity
  • Moderate tempo hinting at a strategic battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 4.19 ✓ Cashed
AI 27% Implied 24% +3.19u
+319%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LAZ 4-3-3 · MIL 3-4-2-1
LAZ · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · MIL 35 Mandas 15 Mussolini 37 Šutalo 25 Provstgaard 17 Tavares 16 Frattesi 21 Belahyane 24 Taylor 22 Cancellieri ⚽ 14 Noslin ⚽ 10 Zaccagni 16 Maignan 34 Gila 5 Winter 31 Pavlović 21 Chukwueze 14 Modrić 12 Rabiot 2 Estupiñán 8 Loftus-Cheek 70 Cissè 9 Ramos
Subs used · LAZ
58' Isaksen ↑ · Cancellieri ↓
58' Pinamonti ↑ · Noslin ↓
74' Gudmundsson ↑ · Taylor ↓
84' Leite ↑ · Sutalo ↓
84' Lazzari ↑ · Floriani ↓
Subs used · MIL
46' Pulisic ↑ · Loftus-Cheek ↓
46' Moreira ↑ · Estupinan ↓
46' Musah ↑ · Modric ↓
77' Hutchinson ↑ · Cisse ↓
85' Camarda ↑ · Ramos ↓

Statistics

LAZ 2 – 2 MIL
34%
Possession (%)
66%
2.05
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.09
8
Total Shots
16
6
Shots on Target
7
2
Shots off Target
5
7
Shots Inside Box
11
2
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
14
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
2
Yellow Cards
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

19 · 2 – 2
M. Cancellieri
Assist · M. Zaccagni · 1–0
⚽
10'
T. Noslin
2–0
⚽
39'
Half-time · 2 – 0
46'
⇄
C. Pulisic ↓ · R. Loftus-Cheek ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
D. Moreira ↓ · P. Estupinan ↑
Substitution 2
46'
⇄
Y. Musah ↓ · L. Modric ↑
Substitution 3
G. Isaksen ↓ · M. Cancellieri ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
58'
A. Pinamonti ↓ · T. Noslin ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
58'
59'
▮
C. Pulisic
Yellow Card
R. Belahyane
Yellow Card
▮
63'
64'
▮
S. Pavlovic
Yellow Card
65'
⚽
D. Moreira
Assist · C. Pulisic · 2–1
67'
⚽
D. Moreira
Assist · A. Rabiot · 2–2
A. Gudmundsson ↓ · K. Taylor ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
77'
⇄
O. Hutchinson ↓ · A. Cisse ↑
Substitution 4
M. Zaccagni
Yellow Card
▮
78'
D. Leite ↓ · J. Sutalo ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
M. Lazzari ↓ · R. Floriani ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
85'
⇄
F. Camarda ↓ · G. Ramos ↑
Substitution 5
86'
▮
M. Gila
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Lazio and AC Milan drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.05 to 1.09. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Cancellieri (10'), T. Noslin (39'), D. Moreira (65'), D. Moreira (67').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.22 units (Brier 0.207).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.20 2.30 48% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.92 1.90 52% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
Away Win 2.30 2.10 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.83 1.83 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.67 1.67 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.68 2.66 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.51 1.51 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.57 1.67 62% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.19 3.88 27% Cashed +3.19 Cashed
Home Win 3.28 3.80 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.27 1.29 69% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Draw 3.18 3.25 28% Cashed +2.18 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.87 2.85 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.40 1.38 72% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 1.06 91% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.21 1.22 73% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.00 6.99 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.22u −1% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
LAZ – MIL @ 4.19
+11.4%
Edge
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