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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lecce — Monza

Predictions by Market: Lecce vs Monza

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lecce
Lecce
Home · last 5 L L W L L
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sep · 13:00
3:2
Full-time
Monza
Monza
L D L W L Away · last 5
Referee Valerio Crezzini, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LEC
37%
Best 2.90
Draw
29%
Best 3.15
Away Win · MON
34%
Best 2.84
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 2.88
Fair odds
2.76
book 2.88 · +4.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 36% · EV +4.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (64%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 36.9%
Odds 2.48
Show model details
Implied probability 40.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 34.3%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 28.7%
Odds 3.05
Show model details
Implied probability 32.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 62.2%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 37.8%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 36.2%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 81.3%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 87.6%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 63.8%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 18.7%
Odds 4.05
Show model details
Implied probability 24.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 55.1%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 45%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 37.3%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 34%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 66%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 65.7%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
LEC – MON @ 2.88
+4.2%
Edge
Forecast →