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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lecce — Monza

Lecce vs Monza 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lecce
Lecce
Home · last 5 L L W L L
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sep · 13:00
3:2
Full-time
Monza
Monza
L D L W L Away · last 5
Referee Valerio Crezzini, Italy
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 62% · book 1.67 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.85 ✗
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 37% · book 2.48 ✓
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
1.08 – 2.79
Δ −1.71
Possession
39% – 61%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 2.88 — +4.2% better than the market.

Lecce hosts Monza in a Serie A clash where recent form and tactical caution could shape a tight encounter. Lecce’s home momentum is modest, while Monza shows signs of resilience despite a patchy run. The matchup hints at a compact game with limited goal-scoring chances, supported by a history of low-scoring draws between these sides.

  • Both teams have struggled to find consistent attacking rhythm.
  • Defensive solidity likely to be prioritized, especially from Monza.
  • Odds suggest a controlled pace with under 2.5 goals favored.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 2.88 ✗ Lost
AI 36% Implied 35% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEC 4-3-3 · MON 3-4-2-1
LEC · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · MON 30 Falcone 17 Veiga 5 Siebert 44 Gabriel ⚽ 25 Gallo 29 Coulibaly ⚽ 14 Maleh 20 Ilić 11 Konan 9 Štulić 99 Monteiro 20 Thiam 60 Kouadio 3 Lucchesi 44 Carboni 19 Birindelli 90 Folorunsho 14 Akinsanmiro 7 Mangas ⚽ 28 Colpani 46 Robinson 9 Varela
Subs used · LEC
46' Pierotti ↑ · Ndri ↓
66' Ngom ↑ · Ilic ↓
74' Fatah ↑ · Monteiro ↓
74' Esteban ↑ · Stulic ↓
85' Kaba ↑ · Maleh ↓
Subs used · MON
46' Bakoune ↑ · Mangas ↓
64' Cutrone ↑ · Robinson ↓
64' Zeballos ↑ · Colpani ↓
75' Forson ↑ · Varela ↓
84' Mout ↑ · Akinsanmiro ↓

Statistics

LEC 3 – 2 MON
39%
Possession (%)
61%
1.08
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.79
7
Total Shots
19
3
Shots on Target
11
3
Shots off Target
5
6
Shots Inside Box
14
4
Corner Kicks
6
0
Offsides
4
14
Fouls
13
73%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
0
8
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

17 · 3 – 2
L. Coulibaly
Assist · I. Ilic · 1–0
⚽
3'
Tiago Gabriel
Assist · I. Ilic · 2–0
⚽
10'
20'
⚽
R. Mangas
Assist · S. Birindelli · 2–1
L. Coulibaly
Assist · D. Veiga · 3–1
⚽
21'
K. Ndri
Yellow Card
▮
38'
Half-time · 3 – 1
46'
⇄
A. Bakoune ↓ · R. Mangas ↑
Substitution 1
S. Pierotti ↓ · K. Ndri ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
64'
⇄
P. Cutrone ↓ · J. Robinson ↑
Substitution 2
64'
⇄
E. Zeballos ↓ · A. Colpani ↑
Substitution 3
O. Ngom ↓ · I. Ilic ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
A. Fatah ↓ · J. Monteiro ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
P. Esteban ↓ · N. Stulic ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
75'
⇄
O. Forson ↓ · G. Varela ↑
Substitution 4
84'
⇄
M. Mout ↓ · E. Akinsanmiro ↑
Substitution 5
M. Kaba ↓ · Y. Maleh ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
89'
⚽
E. Zeballos
3–2
D. Veiga
Yellow Card
▮
90'
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Lecce beat Monza 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 3–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 82% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.79 to 1.08. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 7, 11 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.08 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: L. Coulibaly (3'), Tiago Gabriel (10'), R. Mangas (20'), L. Coulibaly (21'), E. Zeballos (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.59 units (Brier 0.278).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.67 1.67 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.85 1.86 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.48 2.82 37% Cashed +1.48 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.89 1.89 45% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.20 2.30 38% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.88 1.88 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.02 2.02 34% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.88 2.88 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.42 1.42 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.00 2.70 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.36 1.44 66% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Draw 3.05 3.10 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 8.00 8.00 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.20 1.22 81% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 1.06 88% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.36 1.40 64% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.05 4.10 19% Cashed +3.05 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.59u −3% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
LEC – MON @ 2.88
+4.2%
Edge
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