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Home › Italy › Serie A › Genoa — Frosinone

Genoa vs Frosinone 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Genoa
Genoa
Home · last 5 L L D L W
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sep · 13:00
1:1
Full-time
Frosinone
Frosinone
W W D W L Away · last 5
Referee Antonio Rapuano, Italy
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 2.20 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 2.05 ✓
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 57% · book 1.78 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.86 – 2.03
Δ −0.17
Possession
44% – 56%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 3.68 — +11.4% better than the market.

Genoa hosts Frosinone in a Serie A clash where the home side struggles with form, having lost their last three matches. Frosinone arrives with better momentum, winning two of their last three games and showing a more effective attack. The tactical battle may favor Frosinone’s sharper offense against Genoa’s shaky defense. Expect a cautious tempo with a low goal count, as recent trends and odds suggest a tight, tactical encounter.

  • Frosinone’s recent form edge
  • Genoa’s defensive vulnerabilities
  • Likely low-scoring, controlled pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 3.68 ✗ Lost
AI 30% Implied 27% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

GEN 3-5-2 · FRO 4-3-3
GEN · 3-5-2 4-3-3 · FRO 1 Bijlow 27 Marcandalli 5 Østigård 22 Vásquez ⚽ 3 Ehizibue 32 Frendrup 8 Baldanzi 97 Sow 77 Ellertsson 18 Osmajić 29 Colombo ⚽ 22 Palmisani 20 Oyono 3 Calvani 2 Cittadini 79 Bracaglia 14 Calò 10 Schmid 73 Masini 7 Ghedjemis 9 Raimondo 17 Kvernadze ⚽
Subs used · GEN
46' Messias ↑ · Baldanzi ↓
60' El Shaarawy ↑ · Ehizibue ↓
70' Vitinha ↑ · Colombo ↓
79' Amorim ↑ · Sow ↓
80' Meichtry ↑ · E. Ellertsson ↓
Subs used · FRO
46' Monterisi ↑ · Cittadini ↓
71' Hasa ↑ · Schmid ↓
73' Fini ↑ · Ghedjemis ↓
73' Bobcek ↑ · Raimondo ↓
87' Zerbin ↑ · Kvernadze ↓

Statistics

GEN 1 – 1 FRO
44%
Possession (%)
56%
1.86
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.03
17
Total Shots
27
5
Shots on Target
6
6
Shots off Target
8
12
Shots Inside Box
16
8
Corner Kicks
9
2
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
12
64%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
3
Yellow Cards
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

19 · 1 – 1
14'
⚽
G. Kvernadze
Assist · R. Schmid · 0–1
16'
▮
G. Cittadini
Yellow Card
L. Colombo (P)
Penalty · Assist · L. Colombo · 1–1
⚽
45+1'
Half-time · 1 – 1
Junior Messias ↓ · T. Baldanzi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
I. Monterisi ↓ · G. Cittadini ↑
Substitution 1
K. Ehizibue
Yellow Card
▮
49'
J. Vasquez
Assist · D. Sow · 2–1
⚽
50'
S. El Shaarawy ↓ · K. Ehizibue ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
62'
▮
G. Bracaglia
Yellow Card
J. Vasquez
Yellow Card
▮
67'
Vitinha ↓ · L. Colombo ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
70'
71'
⇄
L. Hasa ↓ · R. Schmid ↑
Substitution 2
73'
⇄
S. Fini ↓ · F. Ghedjemis ↑
Substitution 3
73'
⇄
T. Bobcek ↓ · A. Raimondo ↑
Substitution 4
Amorim ↓ · D. Sow ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
F. Meichtry ↓ · M. E. Ellertsson ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
J. Vasquez
Yellow Card
▮
87'
J. Vasquez
Red Card
▮
87'
87'
⇄
A. Zerbin ↓ · G. Kvernadze ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Genoa and Frosinone drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 78% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 27 shots to 17, 6 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Kvernadze (14'), J. Vasquez (50'). J. Vasquez was sent off in the 87' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.20 units (Brier 0.155).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.20 2.19 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.05 2.05 58% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.78 1.63 57% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Home Win 2.05 2.23 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.60 2.36 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.64 1.63 47% Cashed +0.64 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.00 1.87 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.36 3.75 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 10.00 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.68 3.34 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.31 1.38 81% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.34 1.34 68% Cashed +0.34 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.53 1.63 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.35 3.30 27% Cashed +2.35 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 1.03 87% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 1.23 63% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.35 2.88 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.20u −19% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
GEN – FRO @ 3.68
+11.4%
Edge
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