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Home › Italy › Serie A › Venezia — Fiorentina

Venezia vs Fiorentina 2:4: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Venezia
Venezia
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Fri 11 Sep · 18:45
2:4
Full-time
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
L L W D L Away · last 5
Referee Francesco Fourneau, Italy
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 56% · book 2.00 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 2.21 ✗
Miss
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 60% · book 1.61 ✗
Total goals
6
2 · 4
xG (open play)
0.71 – 3.35
Δ −2.64
Possession
63% – 37%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.00 — +12.8% better than the market.

Both Venezia and Fiorentina enter this Serie A clash struggling for form, with neither side having secured points recently. Venezia's home momentum is weak, while Fiorentina shows slightly better attacking promise despite their recent losses. Expect a cautious game with a compact defensive setup from both sides, likely resulting in limited clear-cut chances.

  • Low scoring trend suggests a tight, tactical battle.
  • Fiorentina's marginal attacking edge may be contained by Venezia's home resilience.
  • Odds hint at a match leaning towards under 2.5 goals and a possible draw.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.00 ✗ Lost
AI 56% Implied 50% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

VEN 3-5-2 · FIO 4-3-3
VEN · 3-5-2 4-3-3 · FIO 1 Stanković 3 Schingtienne 2 Moreno 5 Haps 18 Hainaut ⚽ 71 Pérez 6 Busio 19 Sohm 20 Sagrado 10 Yeboah 45 Adams ⚽ 43 Gea 20 Jiménez 3 Drăguşin 33 Viery 6 Ranieri 44 Fagioli 27 Ndour 14 Atta 30 Mastantuono ⚽ 23 Beto 25 Njie
Subs used · VEN
44' J. Helgason ↑ · Busio ↓
69' Correia ↑ · Sagrado ↓
69' Jesus ↑ · Moreno ↓
80' Fernandez ↑ · Yeboah ↓
80' Lauberbach ↑ · Sohm ↓
Subs used · FIO
60' Gnonto ↑ · Atta ↓
60' Pellegrino ↑ · Beto ↓
80' Pote ↑ · Njie ↓
89' Pongracic ↑ · Ranieri ↓
89' Brescianini ↑ · Mastantuono ↓

Statistics

VEN 2 – 4 FIO
63%
Possession (%)
37%
0.71
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
3.35
11
Total Shots
19
4
Shots on Target
10
6
Shots off Target
6
9
Shots Inside Box
15
2
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
6
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
2
Yellow Cards
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

19 · 2 – 4
A. Adams
Assist · G. Busio · 1–0
⚽
22'
29'
⚽
F. Mastantuono
Assist · A. Jimenez · 1–1
30'
⚽
F. Mastantuono
Assist · Beto · 1–2
J. Schingtienne
Yellow Card
▮
38'
T. J. Helgason ↓ · G. Busio ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
44'
Half-time · 1 – 2
60'
⇄
W. Gnonto ↓ · A. Atta ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
M. Pellegrino ↓ · Beto ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⚽
M. Pellegrino
Assist · N. Fagioli · 1–3
T. Correia ↓ · R. Sagrado ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
69'
Juan Jesus ↓ · M. Moreno ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
69'
72'
▮
A. Njie
Yellow Card
S. Sohm
Yellow Card
▮
73'
T. Fernandez ↓ · J. Yeboah ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
L. Lauberbach ↓ · S. Sohm ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
80'
⇄
Pote ↓ · A. Njie ↑
Substitution 3
84'
⚽
F. Mastantuono
1–4
A. Hainaut
Assist · R. Haps · 2–4
⚽
86'
89'
⇄
M. Pongracic ↓ · L. Ranieri ↑
Substitution 4
89'
⇄
M. Brescianini ↓ · F. Mastantuono ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 4

Match recap

Fiorentina won 4–2 away at Venezia. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.35 to 0.71. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 11, 10 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Adams (22'), F. Mastantuono (29'), F. Mastantuono (30'), M. Pellegrino (66'), F. Mastantuono (84'), A. Hainaut (86').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.07 units (Brier 0.268).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.00 2.10 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.21 2.27 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.61 1.53 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.30 2.48 40% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.80 1.80 44% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.61 1.57 48% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.24 2.07 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.70 1.83 40% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.93 4.10 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.38 1.42 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.05 2.87 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.36 1.40 66% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.93 2.75 24% Cashed +1.93 Cashed
Draw 3.40 3.40 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.23 1.22 69% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −2.07u −14% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
VEN – FIO @ 2.00
+12.8%
Edge
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