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Home › Italy › Serie A › Cagliari — Lecce

Cagliari vs Lecce 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Cagliari
Cagliari
Home · last 5 L W W W D
Kick-off
Mon 07 Sep · 16:30
1:0
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
L L W L L Away · last 5
Unipol Domus · Cagliari Referee J. L. Sacchi
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.47 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 60% · book 1.69 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 1.83 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.47 — +13.7% better than the market.

Cagliari hosts Lecce in a Serie A clash where Lecce's recent form and attacking threat stand out. Lecce's momentum with consistent wins contrasts with Cagliari's mixed results, suggesting an edge for the visitors. The home side's defense will need to be compact to contain Lecce's forward play, while Cagliari may rely on set-pieces and home support to stay competitive.

  • Lecce's sharper form and goal threat
  • Cagliari's home resilience and set-piece potential
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 2.47 ✗ Lost
AI 46% Implied 40% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CAG 4-3-2-1 · LEC 4-3-3
CAG · 4-3-2-1 4-3-3 · LEC 1 Caprile 2 Pedro 14 Deiola 15 Rodríguez 33 Obert 8 Adopo 6 Winks 4 Romano 10 Fazzini 70 Maldini ⚽ 31 Mendy 30 Falcone 17 Veiga 4 Gaspar 44 Gabriel 25 Gallo 29 Coulibaly 79 Ngom 20 Ilić 50 Pierotti 9 Štulić 99 Monteiro
Subs used · CAG
61' Felici ↑ · Fazzini ↓
66' Kofler ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
66' Fadera ↑ · Maldini ↓
74' Gagliardini ↑ · Felici ↓
74' Sugamele ↑ · Mendy ↓
Subs used · LEC
45' Fatah ↑ · Ngom ↓
66' Siebert ↑ · Gaspar ↓
66' Maleh ↑ · Ilić ↓
66' N'Dri ↑ · Monteiro ↓
82' Berisha ↑ · Pierotti ↓

Statistics

CAG 1 – 0 LEC
42%
Possession (%)
58%
20
Total Shots
10
9
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
4
12
Shots Inside Box
4
7
Corner Kicks
5
5
Offsides
1
9
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
8

Match events

15 · 1 – 0
Daniel Maldini
Assist · Jacopo Fazzini · 1–0
⚽
29'
37'
▮
Kialonda Gaspar
Yellow Card
45'
⇄
Amar Fatah ↓ · Oumar Ngom ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 1 – 0
Mattia Felici ↓ · Jacopo Fazzini ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
Raphael Kofler ↓ · Juan Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
Alieu Fadera ↓ · Daniel Maldini ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
66'
66'
⇄
Jamil Siebert ↓ · Kialonda Gaspar ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⇄
Youssef Maleh ↓ · Ivan Ilić ↑
Substitution 3
66'
⇄
Konan N'Dri ↓ · Joel Almada Monteiro ↑
Substitution 4
Roberto Gagliardini ↓ · Mattia Felici ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
A. Sugamele ↓ · Paul Mendy ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
74'
82'
⇄
Medon Berisha ↓ · Santiago Pierotti ↑
Substitution 5
Alessandro Deiola
Yellow Card
▮
90+5'
90+5'
▮
Jamil Siebert
Yellow Card
90+7'
▮
Wladimiro Falcone
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Cagliari beat Lecce 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 10, 9 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Daniel Maldini (29').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.32 units (Brier 0.194).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.47 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.69 — 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.83 — 57% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.91 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.13 — 40% Cashed +1.13 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.70 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.00 — 31% Cashed +2.00 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.44 — 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.83 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.70 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.10 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.27 — 69% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.65 — 57% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.08 — 90% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.50 — 40% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.22 — 78% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Under 0.5 6.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.32u −20% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
CAG – LEC @ 2.47
+13.7%
Edge
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