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Frosinone vs Venezia 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Frosinone
Frosinone
Home · last 5 W W D W L
Kick-off
Sun 06 Sep · 13:00
3:2
Full-time
Venezia
Venezia
L L L L L Away · last 5
Stadio Benito Stirpe · Frosinone Referee M. Perri
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 50% · book 2.32 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 48% · book 2.50 ✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 39% · book 2.53 ✗
Total goals
5
3 · 2
Possession
39% – 61%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 10.00 — +12.9% better than the market.

Frosinone hosts Venezia in a Serie A clash where defensive caution may prevail. Venezia's recent form shows struggles, while Frosinone has signs of home momentum despite limited scoring. The match hints at a tight contest with both sides likely to prioritize solidity over risk, supported by balanced odds on under 2.5 goals.

  • Frosinone's home edge could help contain Venezia's attack.
  • Venezia's defensive lapses may be limited by Frosinone's modest offensive threat.
  • Expect a measured pace with few clear-cut chances.

Under 2.5 goals seems plausible given the cautious approach and recent form trends, making a low-scoring game the likely scenario.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5
Under 0.5 @ 10.00 ✗ Lost
AI 11% Implied 10% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

FRO 4-2-3-1 · VEN 3-5-2
Subs used · FRO
57' Ghedjemis ↑ · Fini ↓
57' Cichella ↑ · Schmid ↓
79' Monterisi ↑ · Cittadini ↓
79' Birligea ↑ · Raimondo ↓
88' Amey ↑ · Calò ↓
Subs used · VEN
16' Sagrado ↑ · Bella-Kotchap ↓
45' Yeboah ↑ · Rrahmani ↓
45' Fernández ↑ · Sohm ↓
70' Lauberbach ↑ · Adams ↓
75' Moreno ↑ · Haps ↓

Statistics

FRO 3 – 2 VEN
39%
Possession (%)
61%
13
Total Shots
15
8
Shots on Target
4
2
Shots off Target
6
9
Shots Inside Box
8
5
Corner Kicks
2
6
Offsides
1
18
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

22 · 3 – 2
16'
⇄
Richie Sagrado ↓ · Armel Bella-Kotchap ↑
Substitution 1
Antonio Raimondo
Assist · Anthony Oyono · 1–0
⚽
21'
33'
▮
Redouane Halhal
Yellow Card
Romano Schmid
Yellow Card
▮
33'
39'
▮
Giovanni Stroppa
Yellow Card
Antonio Raimondo
Assist · Patrizio Masini · 2–0
⚽
39'
40'
▮
Gianluca Busio
Yellow Card
44'
▮
Simon Sohm
Yellow Card
45'
⇄
John Yeboah ↓ · Albion Rrahmani ↑
Substitution 2
45'
⇄
Toni Fernández ↓ · Simon Sohm ↑
Substitution 3
Half-time · 2 – 0
Farès Ghedjemis ↓ · Seydou Fini ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
57'
Matteo Cichella ↓ · Romano Schmid ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
57'
Anthony Oyono
Yellow Card
▮
61'
66'
⚽
John Yeboah
Assist · Gianluca Busio · 2–1
70'
⇄
Lion Lauberbach ↓ · Akor Adams ↑
Substitution 4
74'
⚽
Richie Sagrado
Assist · Antoine Hainaut · 2–2
75'
⇄
Matias Moreno ↓ · Ridgeciano Haps ↑
Substitution 5
Ilario Monterisi ↓ · Giorgio Cittadini ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
79'
Daniel Birligea ↓ · Antonio Raimondo ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
Giorgi Kvernadze
3–2
⚽
83'
Wisdom Amey ↓ · Giacomo Calò ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
89'
▮
Matias Moreno
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Frosinone beat Venezia 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Antonio Raimondo (21'), Antonio Raimondo (39'), John Yeboah (66'), Richie Sagrado (74'), Giorgi Kvernadze (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.00 units (Brier 0.236).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.32 2.32 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.50 2.50 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.53 2.61 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.75 2.62 34% Cashed +1.75 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.50 1.50 53% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.57 1.57 50% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.86 1.96 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.04 1.93 34% Cashed +1.04 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.42 1.47 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.50 1.50 61% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.65 4.65 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 10.00 14.93 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.57 1.57 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.45 2.45 29% Cashed +1.45 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 1.03 89% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.33 3.45 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.17 1.17 70% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.00u −18% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
FRO – VEN @ 10.00
+12.9%
Edge
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