Inter vs Napoli 3:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 5.13 — +6.9% better than the market.

Inter enter this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a perfect recent record and a clear edge in expected goals. Napoli’s defense has struggled to contain opponents, suggesting Inter’s attacking threat could dominate. The pace may be moderate, favoring a tactical battle where Inter’s pressing and home comfort could tip the scales.

Inter’s solid form and home advantage
Napoli’s defensive vulnerabilities
Moderate tempo favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 5.13 ✗ Lost

AI 21% Implied 20% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

INT 3-5-2 · NAP 4-3-3

INT · 3-5-2 4-3-3 · NAP

10 Martínez ⚽

Subs used · INT

45'

Thuram ↑ ·

Esposito ↓

45'

Jones ↑ ·

Sučić ↓

62'

Augusto ↑ ·

Dimarco ↓

72'

Çalhanoğlu ↑ ·

Zieliński ↓

79'

Bonny ↑ ·

Bastoni ↓

Subs used · NAP

62'

Bruyne ↑ ·

Vergara ↓

62'

Neres ↑ ·

Politano ↓

72'

Lucca ↑ ·

Hojlund ↓

79'

Gilmour ↑ ·

Lobotka ↓

80'

Badiashile ↑ ·

Santos ↓

Statistics

INT 3 – 2 NAP

63%

Possession (%)

37%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 3 – 2

35'

▮

Antonio Vergara

Yellow Card

Marcus Thuram ↓ · Pio Esposito ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Curtis Jones ↓ · Petar Sučić ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

45'

Half-time · 0 – 0

50'

⚽

Matteo Politano

0–1

53'

⚽

Rasmus Hojlund

Assist · Giovanni Di Lorenzo · 0–2

Lautaro Martínez

Assist · Federico Dimarco · 1–2

⚽

56'

62'

⇄

Kevin De Bruyne ↓ · Antonio Vergara ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

David Neres ↓ · Matteo Politano ↑

Substitution 2

Carlos Augusto ↓ · Federico Dimarco ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

62'

Lautaro Martínez

Yellow Card

▮

68'

Hakan Çalhanoğlu ↓ · Piotr Zieliński ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

72'

⇄

Lorenzo Lucca ↓ · Rasmus Hojlund ↑

Substitution 3

77'

▮

Rafael Marin Zamora

Yellow Card

Ange-Yoan Bonny ↓ · Alessandro Bastoni ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

⇄

Billy Gilmour ↓ · Stanislav Lobotka ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

Benoît Badiashile ↓ · Alisson Santos ↑

Substitution 5

Marcus Thuram

Assist · Carlos Augusto · 2–2

⚽

82'

Lautaro Martínez

Assist · Manuel Akanji · 3–2

⚽

90+1'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Inter beat Napoli 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 29 shots to 16, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 5. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Matteo Politano (50'), Rasmus Hojlund (53'), Lautaro Martínez (56'), Marcus Thuram (82'), Lautaro Martínez (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.87 units (Brier 0.194).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.77	1.89	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.14	2.20	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.10	2.00	46%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.91	1.91	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.68	1.66	54%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.95	1.87	44%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Away Win	5.13	5.49	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.17	1.15	79%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.32	1.28	72%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.63	3.26	26%	Cashed	+2.63	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	1.04	91%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.27	1.30	74%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.26	3.40	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.55	3.77	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	10.00	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.68	3.86	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.25	1.23	54%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.87u	−17% ROI

Inter vs Napoli 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled