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Home › Italy › Serie A › Genoa — Como

Genoa vs Como 1:4: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Genoa
Genoa
Home · last 5 L L D L W
Kick-off
Fri 04 Sep · 18:45
1:4
Full-time
Como
Como
W W W L D Away · last 5
Referee M. Guida
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.80 ✗
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 33% · book 3.40 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.89 ✗
Total goals
5
1 · 4
Possession
38% – 62%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.40 — +13.4% better than the market.

Genoa hosts Como in a Serie A clash where Como's recent form and higher points per game give them a clear edge. Genoa's struggles at home contrast with Como's momentum, suggesting the visitors could control the match tempo. The low expected goals hint at a cautious game with limited chances.

  • Como's better form and away confidence
  • Genoa's difficulty in creating chances
  • Likely compact defensive setups limiting goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.40 ✗ Lost
AI 33% Implied 29% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

GEN 3-4-1-2 · COM 4-2-3-1
GEN · 3-4-1-2 4-2-3-1 · COM 1 Bijlow 27 Marcandalli 5 Østigård 22 Vásquez 20 Sabelli 32 Frendrup 97 Sow 77 Ellertsson 8 Baldanzi 29 Colombo 18 Osmajić ⚽ 1 Butez 27 Couto 4 Naveros 99 Chalobah 3 Valle 5 Perrone 7 da Cunha 11 Diao ⚽ 10 Paz ⚽ 20 Baturina ⚽ 9 Douvikas
Subs used · GEN
45' Oliveira ↑ · Sabelli ↓
66' Ehizibue ↑ · Baldanzi ↓
66' Messias ↑ · Colombo ↓
75' Filho ↑ · Sow ↓
81' Meichtry ↑ · Marcandalli ↓
Subs used · COM
66' Kean ↑ · Douvikas ↓
66' Caqueret ↑ · Baturina ↓
79' Ricci ↑ · Cunha ↓
80' Milla ↑ · Paz ↓
84' Liberali ↑ · Diaoune ↓

Statistics

GEN 1 – 4 COM
38%
Possession (%)
62%
11
Total Shots
20
2
Shots on Target
9
5
Shots off Target
6
8
Shots Inside Box
9
5
Corner Kicks
4
6
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

18 · 1 – 4
Milutin Osmajić
Assist · Lorenzo Colombo · 1–0
⚽
19'
25'
⚽
Martin Baturina
Assist · Álex Valle · 1–1
30'
⚽
Assane Diao Diaoune
1–2
Djibril Sow
Yellow Card
▮
36'
40'
⚽
Nico Paz
Assist · Yan Couto · 1–3
Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira ↓ · Stefano Sabelli ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
45'
Half-time · 1 – 3
60'
▮
Martin Baturina
Yellow Card
Leo Østigård
Yellow Card
▮
62'
66'
⇄
Moise Kean ↓ · Anastasios Douvikas ↑
Substitution 1
66'
⇄
Maxence Caqueret ↓ · Martin Baturina ↑
Substitution 2
Kingsley Ehizibue ↓ · Tommaso Baldanzi ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
Junior Messias ↓ · Lorenzo Colombo ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
66'
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho ↓ · Djibril Sow ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
78'
⚽
Assane Diao Diaoune
Assist · Moise Kean · 1–4
79'
⇄
Samuele Ricci ↓ · Lucas Da Cunha ↑
Substitution 3
80'
⇄
Luis Milla ↓ · Nico Paz ↑
Substitution 4
Franz-Ethan Meichtry ↓ · Alessandro Marcandalli ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
84'
⇄
Mattia Liberali ↓ · Assane Diao Diaoune ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Como won 4–1 away at Genoa. At half-time it was 1–3.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 11, 9 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Milutin Osmajić (19'), Martin Baturina (25'), Assane Diao Diaoune (30'), Nico Paz (40'), Assane Diao Diaoune (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.01 units (Brier 0.224).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.80 1.80 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.40 3.40 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.89 1.89 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.98 1.98 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 1.80 1.75 50% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.88 1.88 44% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.00 2.00 41% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Home Win 4.88 5.13 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.18 1.18 77% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 1.30 67% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.00 9.01 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.29 1.29 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 1.04 88% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.33 3.50 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.50 3.50 21% Cashed +2.50 Cashed
AH Home 0 3.47 3.55 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.28 1.26 50% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.01u −18% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
GEN – COM @ 3.40
+13.4%
Edge
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