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Home › Italy › Serie A › AC Milan — Venezia

AC Milan vs Venezia 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 W D D W D
Kick-off
Fri 28 Aug · 18:45
2:0
Full-time
Venezia
Venezia
L L L L L Away · last 5
Referee Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 61% · book 1.85 ✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 64% · book 1.80 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 39% · book 1.86 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
2.13 – 0.82
Δ +1.31
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.80 — +14.8% better than the market.

AC Milan enters this Serie A clash with clear home momentum after a recent win, contrasting with Venezia's current struggles. The hosts are likely to leverage their attacking edge and compact defensive shape to control the game tempo. Venezia’s defense may face pressure, especially given Milan’s ability to create chances and capitalize on set-pieces.

  • Home side’s recent form suggests confidence and rhythm
  • Venezia’s defensive resilience will be tested
  • Match likely to feature a moderate to high pace with goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.80 ✗ Lost
AI 64% Implied 56% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MIL 3-4-2-1 · VEN 3-5-2
MIL · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · VEN 16 Maignan 34 Gila 5 Winter 31 Pavlović 21 Chukwueze 80 Musah 14 Modrić 33 Bartesaghi 8 Loftus-Cheek 70 Cissè 9 Ramos ⚽ 1 Stanković 3 Schingtienne 17 Bella-Kotchap 4 Franjić 18 Hainaut 71 Pérez 6 Busio 26 Bašić 5 Haps 10 Yeboah 45 Adams
Subs used · MIL
59' Saelemaekers ↑ · Loftus-Cheek ↓
59' Rabiot ↑ · Cisse ↓
74' Jashari ↑ · Modric ↓
87' Estupinan ↑ · Bartesaghi ↓
87' Gabbia ↑ · Gila ↓
Subs used · VEN
45+3' Halhal ↑ · Franjic ↓
65' Sohm ↑ · Basic ↓
66' Correia ↑ · Haps ↓
80' Lauberbach ↑ · Yeboah ↓
80' Rrahmani ↑ · Perez ↓

Statistics

MIL 2 – 0 VEN
58%
Possession (%)
42%
2.13
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.82
16
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Target
2
9
Shots off Target
3
11
Shots Inside Box
7
2
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
4
8
Fouls
11
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

16 · 2 – 0
27'
▮
J. Schingtienne
Yellow Card
45+3'
⇄
R. Halhal ↓ · B. Franjic ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
48'
▮
K. Perez
Yellow Card
54'
▮
R. Haps
Yellow Card
A. Saelemaekers ↓ · R. Loftus-Cheek ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
59'
A. Rabiot ↓ · A. Cisse ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
59'
65'
⇄
S. Sohm ↓ · T. Basic ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⇄
T. Correia ↓ · R. Haps ↑
Substitution 3
G. Ramos
Assist · A. Saelemaekers · 1–0
⚽
69'
S. Pavlovic
Yellow Card
▮
71'
A. Jashari ↓ · L. Modric ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
80'
⇄
L. Lauberbach ↓ · J. Yeboah ↑
Substitution 4
80'
⇄
A. Rrahmani ↓ · K. Perez ↑
Substitution 5
P. Estupinan ↓ · D. Bartesaghi ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
87'
M. Gabbia ↓ · M. Gila ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
R. Halhal
Own goal · 2–0
⚽
89'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

AC Milan beat Venezia 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.13 to 0.82. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Ramos (69'), R. Halhal (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.88 units (Brier 0.157).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.85 1.85 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.80 1.73 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.86 1.89 39% Cashed +0.86 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.00 2.15 36% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.10 2.75 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.61 2.61 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 8.50 6.76 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.93 5.00 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.08 1.10 81% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Home Win 1.46 1.47 57% Cashed +0.46 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.23 1.21 84% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.10 1.15 61% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Draw 4.88 4.44 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.02 95% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.36 1.41 57% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.75 4.33 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.90 12.99 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.88u −35% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
MIL – VEN @ 1.80
+14.8%
Edge
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