Match AS Roma vs Fiorentina August 24, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.10 — +0.8% better than the market.

AS Roma hosts Fiorentina in a Serie A clash where limited recent form data suggests a cautious approach. Roma’s home advantage could provide a slight edge, especially if they leverage their pressing and set-piece threat. Fiorentina might look to contain with a compact block, aiming to exploit counterattacks. The balanced odds on goals hint at a moderate tempo, with both sides likely to prioritize structure over open play.

Home momentum may favor Roma’s attacking intent
Fiorentina’s defensive resilience could limit clear chances
Moderate pace expected, balancing attack and defense

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.10 ✗ Lost

AI 48% Implied 48% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ROM 3-4-2-1 · FIO 4-3-2-1

ROM · 3-4-2-1 4-3-2-1 · FIO

14 Malen ⚽

Subs used · ROM

54'

Soule ↑ ·

Mora ↓

68'

Castro ↑ ·

Malen ↓

68'

Koulierakis ↑ ·

Hermoso ↓

79'

El Aynaoui ↑ ·

Dybala ↓

79'

Pisilli ↑ ·

Kone ↓

Subs used · FIO

62'

Jimenez ↑ ·

Brescianini ↓

62'

Inao Oulai ↑ ·

Fagioli ↓

63'

Kean ↑ ·

Mastantuono ↓

74'

Mandragora ↑ ·

Atta ↓

80'

Valdepenas ↑ ·

Mario ↓

📊 Statistics

ROM 4 – 0 FIO

61%

Possession (%)

39%

2.77

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.28

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 4 – 0

D. Malen

Assist · P. Dybala · 1–0

⚽

27'

30'

▮

N. Fagioli

Yellow Card

M. Hermoso

Yellow Card

▮

39'

Half-time · 1 – 0

M. Kone

Yellow Card

▮

49'

D. Malen

Assist · P. Dybala · 2–0

⚽

52'

M. Soule ↓ · R. Mora ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

54'

D. Malen

Assist · P. Dybala · 3–0

⚽

60'

62'

⇄

A. Jimenez ↓ · M. Brescianini ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

C. Inao Oulai ↓ · N. Fagioli ↑

Substitution 2

63'

⇄

M. Kean ↓ · F. Mastantuono ↑

Substitution 3

63'

▮

M. Pellegrino

Yellow Card

S. Castro ↓ · D. Malen ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

K. Koulierakis ↓ · M. Hermoso ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

68'

74'

⇄

R. Mandragora ↓ · A. Atta ↑

Substitution 4

N. El Aynaoui ↓ · P. Dybala ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

N. Pisilli ↓ · M. Kone ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

80'

⇄

V. Valdepenas ↓ · Joao Mario ↑

Substitution 5

N. Pisilli

4–0

⚽

86'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

AS Roma beat Fiorentina 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.77 to 0.28. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 9, 8 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Malen (27'), D. Malen (52'), D. Malen (60'), N. Pisilli (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.81 units (Brier 0.174).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.10	2.10	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.91	1.91	50%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.91	1.91	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.82	1.95	51%	Cashed	+0.82	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	1.80	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.13	3.19	30%	Cashed	+2.13	Cashed
Home Win	1.70	1.70	52%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Away Win	5.88	4.88	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.27	1.26	74%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.34	1.34	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.60	3.75	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.95	3.77	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.01	91%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	10.99	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.23	3.52	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.14	1.18	79%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.20	1.27	55%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.81u	−22% ROI