Legia Warszawa arrives with a solid home record and a notably strong defensive shape, conceding fewer goals at home. Pogon Szczecin, while showing a decent attacking profile, has struggled defensively on the road, which could be a key factor in this matchup. Recent form trends suggest both teams have had mixed results, but Legia’s home advantage and overall steadier performance tilt the balance in their favor. The model anticipates a controlled game with a moderate number of goals, favoring a home win but keeping the draw in play. Totals markets around 2.5 goals look promising, with a slight lean towards over given the attacking capabilities on both sides. BTTS is also likely given both teams’ tendencies to score and concede.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
LEG 4-3-3 · POG 4-1-4-1📊 Statistics
LEG 1 – 0 POG55%
Possession (%)
45%
1.73
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.38
14
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Target
1
6
Shots off Target
5
11
Shots Inside Box
3
6
Corner Kicks
1
3
Offsides
2
17
Fouls
15
76%
Pass Accuracy (%)
73%
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
⏱ Match events
15 · 1 – 0Mileta Rajović (P)
Penalty · 1–0
4'
Kamil Piątkowski
Yellow Card
12'
23'
▮
Mor Ndiaye
Yellow Card
35'
▮
Marian Huja
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
Radovan Pankov ↓ · Kamil Piątkowski ↑
Substitution 1
51'
Kacper Urbański ↓ · Ermal Krasniqi ↑
Substitution 2
64'
Kacper Chodyna ↓ · Noah Weißhaupt ↑
Substitution 3
64'
65'
⇄
Fredrik Ulvestad ↓ · Adrian Przyborek ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
Leonardo Koutris ↓ · Hussein Ali ↑
Substitution 2
68'
▮
Sam Greenwood
Yellow Card
74'
⇄
Danijel Lončar ↓ · Dimitrios Keramitsis ↑
Substitution 3
87'
⇄
Paul Mukairu ↓ · Mor Ndiaye ↑
Substitution 4
87'
⇄
Maciej Wojciechowski ↓ · Musa Juwara ↑
Substitution 5
Rafał Augustyniak ↓ · Juergen Elitim ↑
Substitution 4
88'
Arkadiusz Reca
Yellow Card
90+3'
Full-time · 1 – 0
Match recap
Legia Warszawa beat Pogon Szczecin 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.73 to 0.38. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 6, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Mileta Rajović (4').
Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 5 landed and 5 missed, for a net -3.42 units (Brier 0.169).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
10 · 5 W · 5 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 1.58 | — | 64% | Cashed | +0.58 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.55 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 5.25 | — | 17% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.57 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.47 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.18 | — | 80% | Cashed | +0.18 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.18 | — | 64% | Cashed | +0.18 | Cashed |
| AH Home -0.5 | 1.55 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.55 | Cashed |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.09 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.09 | Cashed |
| Away Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.48 | — | 60% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 10 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 5 W · 5 L | −3.42u | −34% ROI |