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Home › England › Premier League › Brighton — Aston Villa

Predictions by Market: Brighton vs Aston Villa

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Wed 03 Dec · 19:30
3:4
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer Referee Andy Madley, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · BRI
53%
Best 2.33
Draw
26%
Best 3.40
Away Win · AST
22%
Best 3.08
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.20
Fair odds
2.00
book 2.20 · +9.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 50% · EV +9.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (50%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 52.8%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 25.7%
Odds 3.62
Show model details
Implied probability 27.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 21.5%
Odds 3.47
Show model details
Implied probability 28.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 51.8%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 48.2%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 26.5%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 27%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 73%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.2%
Odds 12.30
Show model details
Implied probability 8.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.8%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 73.5%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 49.9%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 50.1%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 21.5%
Odds 2.56
Show model details
Implied probability 39.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 52.8%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 47.2%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 78.5%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
BRI – AST @ 2.20
+9.8%
Edge
Forecast →