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Home Poland Ekstraklasa Legia Warszawa — Jagiellonia

Match Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia September 24, 2025 — Result and Stats

Poland   /   Ekstraklasa Value pick inside
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
Home · last 5 L W W W W
Kick-off
Wed 24 Sep · 19:00
0:0
Full-time
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
L W W D W Away · last 5
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego · Warszawa Referee Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 65% · book 1.67
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.70
Miss
AH Home 0
AH Home 0
AI 73% · book 1.38
Total goals
0
0 · 0
xG (open play)
1.75 – 0.11
Δ +1.64
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
2 / 9
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.67 — +9.0% better than the market.

This encounter features a home side with a solid defensive shape and a decent attacking profile, facing an away team that has shown strong recent form and a more potent attack overall. Legia’s home advantage and recent points per game suggest they can control the pace and limit chances, while Jagiellonia’s streak of wins and attacking threat imply the match could open up. The model leans slightly towards a home win given the venue and defensive edge, but the away team’s momentum keeps the draw and away win in play. The goal expectation is moderate, favoring a match with goals but not an overly high-scoring affair. Key value lies in backing both teams to score and the over 2.5 goals market, reflecting the attacking intent on both sides.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 1.67 ✗ Lost
AI 65% Implied 60% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEG 4-3-2-1 · JAG 4-2-3-1
Subs used · LEG
46' Urbanski ↑ · Stojanovic
62' Weisshaupt ↑ · Bichakhchyan
87' Vinagre ↑ · Reca
87' Krasniqi ↑ · Kapustka
Subs used · JAG
62' Lozano ↑ · Drachal
62' Jozwiak ↑ · Pozo
76' Sylla ↑ · Imaz
89' Cantero ↑ · Pietuszewski
89' Flach ↑ · Pululu

📊 Statistics

LEG 00 JAG
51%
Possession (%)
49%
1.75
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.11
18
Total Shots
3
7
Shots on Target
1
5
Shots off Target
2
10
Shots Inside Box
1
2
Corner Kicks
1
0
Offsides
6
19
Fouls
15
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match events

13 · 0 – 0
Petar Stojanović
Yellow Card
45'
45'
Afimico Pululu
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
K. Urbanski ↓ · P. Stojanovic ↑
Substitution 1
46'
N. Weisshaupt ↓ · V. Bichakhchyan ↑
Substitution 2
62'
62'
S. Lozano ↓ · D. Drachal ↑
Substitution 1
62'
K. Jozwiak ↓ · A. Pozo ↑
Substitution 2
69'
Bernardo Vital
Yellow Card
73'
Kamil Jóźwiak
Yellow Card
76'
Y. Sylla ↓ · J. Imaz ↑
Substitution 3
R. Vinagre ↓ · A. Reca ↑
Substitution 3
87'
E. Krasniqi ↓ · B. Kapustka ↑
Substitution 4
87'
89'
A. Cantero ↓ · O. Pietuszewski ↑
Substitution 4
89'
L. Flach ↓ · A. Pululu ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 0 – 0

Match recap

Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.75 to 0.11. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 3, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 2 landed and 7 missed, for a net -3.65 units (Brier 0.339).

Bet recap · markets settled

9 · 2 W · 7 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.67 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.70 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.38 73% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.25 79% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Away Team Total Over 0.5 1.45 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home -0.5 1.83 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.82 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.10 22% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
Away Win 4.20 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 9 markets @ 1u each 2 W · 7 L −3.65u −41% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
LEG – JAG @ 1.67
+9.0%
Edge
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