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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Union Berlin — SV Elversberg

Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
Home · last 5 D L L L W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 13:30
1:0
Full-time
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
W W L D L Away · last 5
An der Alten Försterei · Berlin Referee Tobias Reichel
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 66% · book 1.65 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.62 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 2.36 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.59 – 0.28
Δ +1.31
Possession
43% – 57%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.62 — +12.6% better than the market.

SV Elversberg enters this Bundesliga clash with clear momentum, boasting a stronger overall quality and recent form edge over Union Berlin. The visitors' offensive capabilities are likely to challenge Union's defense, which has struggled lately. Meanwhile, Union's home edge is limited, suggesting a tactical battle where Elversberg's pressing and transition play could dominate.

  • Elversberg's superior form and quality gap favor their attacking threat.
  • Union Berlin's defense may be vulnerable to quick breaks.
  • Moderate pace expected, with a lean towards a compact, tactical game.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.62 ✓ Cashed
AI 70% Implied 62% +0.62u
+62%
ROI on stake

Lineups

UNI 4-1-4-1 · ELV 4-2-3-1
UNI · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · ELV 1 Rønnow 19 Haberer 4 Van Den Bosch 2 Uduokhai 15 Rothe 8 Khedira 13 Schäfer 11 Woo-Yeong 30 Imeri 20 Aebischer 21 Skarke 20 Kristof 26 Sirch 19 Pinckert 31 Rohr 21 Günther 43 Keidel 8 Poręba 25 Petkov 10 Darvich 29 Zimmerschied 9 Futkeu
Subs used · UNI
58' Burcu ↑ · Imeri ↓
77' Trimmel ↑ · Aebischer ↓
78' Gray ↑ · Jeong ↓
78' Burke ↑ · Skarke ↓
90+2' Kemlein ↑ · Schäfer ↓
Subs used · ELV
59' Krattenmacher ↑ · Zimmerschied ↓
70' Campbell ↑ · Futkeu ↓
71' Mickelson ↑ · Günther ↓
71' Mokwa ↑ · Darvich ↓
86' Schmahl ↑ · Sirch ↓

Statistics

UNI 1 – 0 ELV
43%
Possession (%)
57%
1.59
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.28
19
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Target
2
7
Shots off Target
5
13
Shots Inside Box
6
7
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
7
14
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

14 · 1 – 0
Janik Haberer
Yellow Card
▮
7'
Tim Skarke
Yellow Card
▮
21'
Half-time · 0 – 0
Livan Burcu ↓ · Kastriot Imeri ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
58'
59'
⇄
Maurice Krattenmacher ↓ · Tom Zimmerschied ↑
Substitution 1
70'
⇄
Cole Campbell ↓ · Noel Futkeu ↑
Substitution 2
71'
⇄
Nicholas Mickelson ↓ · Lasse Günther ↑
Substitution 3
71'
⇄
David Mokwa ↓ · Noah Darvich ↑
Substitution 4
Christopher Trimmel ↓ · Michel Aebischer ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
77'
M. Gray ↓ · Woo-Yeong Jeong ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
78'
Oliver Burke ↓ · Tim Skarke ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
78'
Livan Burcu
1–0
⚽
81'
86'
⇄
Frederik Schmahl ↓ · Luca Sirch ↑
Substitution 5
90+2'
▮
Maurice Krattenmacher
Yellow Card
Aljoscha Kemlein ↓ · András Schäfer ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+2'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Union Berlin beat SV Elversberg 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.59 to 0.28. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 7, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Livan Burcu (81').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.39 units (Brier 0.243).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.65 1.54 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.62 2.38 46% Cashed +1.62 Cashed
BTTS No 2.36 2.50 50% Cashed +1.36 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.21 2.08 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.53 1.60 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.25 2.45 34% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.20 2.49 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.71 1.82 34% Cashed +0.71 Cashed
Away Win 2.97 2.80 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.62 1.55 70% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.40 5.00 31% Cashed +3.40 Cashed
Under 0.5 14.00 14.93 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.40 1.42 60% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.45 1.49 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.01 90% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 3.50 3.55 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.19 1.17 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +0.39u +2% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
UNI – ELV @ 1.62
+12.6%
Edge
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