Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.49 — +8.2% better than the market.

Hamburger SV faces a tough challenge against 1. FC Köln, who show better recent form and slightly higher scoring potential. Hamburg’s recent struggles and lack of momentum contrast with Köln’s ability to pick up points and create chances. Expect a cautious game with a pressing edge from Köln and a compact block from Hamburg aiming to frustrate their opponents.

Köln’s away form suggests control and resilience.
Hamburg’s defense may face pressure but could limit clear chances.
Moderate pace expected, leaning towards a low to medium scoring match.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.49 ✓ Cashed

AI 73% Implied 67% +0.49u

+49%

ROI on stake

Lineups

HAM 3-4-2-1 · KOL 4-2-3-1

HAM · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · KOL

9 Moffi

Subs used · HAM

45'

Poulsen ↑ ·

Moffi ↓

67'

Daka ↑ ·

Grönbaek ↓

77'

Lemke ↑ ·

Wolfe ↓

77'

Jatta ↑ ·

Ouahdi ↓

90'

Adeline ↑ ·

Lokonga ↓

Subs used · KOL

64'

Sosa ↑ ·

Mensah ↓

64'

Ache ↑ ·

Dallinga ↓

67'

Jóhannesson ↑ ·

Castro-Montes ↓

81'

Waldschmidt ↑ ·

Krauß ↓

81'

Bülter ↑ ·

Maina ↓

Statistics

HAM 2 – 1 KOL

45%

Possession (%)

55%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 2 – 1

Albert Grönbaek

Yellow Card

▮

10'

Nicolás Capaldo

Assist · Albert Grönbaek · 1–0

⚽

44'

Yussuf Poulsen ↓ · Terem Moffi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Yussuf Poulsen

Assist · Albert Grönbaek · 2–0

⚽

49'

54'

▮

Gideon Mensah

Yellow Card

64'

⇄

Borna Sosa ↓ · Gideon Mensah ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

Ragnar Ache ↓ · Thijs Dallinga ↑

Substitution 2

Patson Daka ↓ · Albert Grönbaek ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

⇄

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson ↓ · Alessio Castro-Montes ↑

Substitution 3

Louis Pepe Lemke ↓ · David Moller Wolfe ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

Bakery Jatta ↓ · Zakaria El Ouahdi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

▮

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson

Yellow Card

81'

⇄

Luca Waldschmidt ↓ · Tom Krauß ↑

Substitution 4

81'

⇄

Marius Bülter ↓ · Linton Maina ↑

Substitution 5

84'

▮

Ellyes Skhiri

Yellow Card

Martin Adeline ↓ · Albert Sambi Lokonga ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

⚽

Ragnar Ache

Assist · Ellyes Skhiri · 2–1

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Köln 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 12, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Nicolás Capaldo (44'), Yussuf Poulsen (49'), Ragnar Ache (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.24 units (Brier 0.180).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.30	2.38	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.44	2.50	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.55	2.50	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.50	2.69	37%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.62	1.60	49%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.97	1.88	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.93	2.02	37%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.52	2.40	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.00	14.93	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.49	1.49	73%	Cashed	+0.49	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.45	4.69	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.49	1.44	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.50	1.50	62%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.51	1.50	52%	Cashed	+0.51	Cashed
Draw	3.70	3.60	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.03	86%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	1.17	69%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.24u	−25% ROI

Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled