1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2:1

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 5.88 — +13.6% better than the market.

1899 Hoffenheim face a VfB Stuttgart side with better recent form, holding a slight momentum edge after a win and a loss compared to Hoffenheim's two losses. Stuttgart's defensive resilience may challenge Hoffenheim's attack, but the home side's higher expected goals hint at some offensive promise. The match likely leans toward a cautious tempo, with under 3.5 goals favored given the balanced head-to-head history and moderate attacking threats.

Stuttgart's recent form and defensive solidity
Hoffenheim's home attacking potential
Moderate pace suggested by odds and past encounters

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 5.88 ✗ Lost

AI 19% Implied 17% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

HOF 4-4-2 · STU 3-4-2-1

HOF · 4-4-2 3-4-2-1 · STU

19 Lemperle

Subs used · HOF

55'

Wimmer ↑ ·

Conté ↓

69'

Gendrey ↑ ·

Coufal ↓

69'

Machida ↑ ·

Rots ↓

82'

Kramarić ↑ ·

Hložek ↓

82'

Asllani ↑ ·

Lemperle ↓

Subs used · STU

35'

Spalt ↑ ·

Stiller ↓

65'

Khannouss ↑ ·

Führich ↓

65'

Undav ↑ ·

Demirović ↓

81'

Sauer ↑ ·

Hendriks ↓

81'

Leweling ↑ ·

Vagnoman ↓

Statistics

HOF 2 – 1 STU

43%

Possession (%)

57%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

14 · 2 – 1

Adam Hložek

Assist · Bambasé Conté · 1–0

⚽

13'

35'

⇄

Yanik Spalt ↓ · Angelo Stiller ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 1 – 0

48'

⚽

Maximilian Mittelstädt

1–1

Patrick Wimmer ↓ · Bambasé Conté ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

Wouter Burger

Yellow Card

▮

63'

65'

⇄

Bilal El Khannouss ↓ · Chris Führich ↑

Substitution 2

65'

⇄

Deniz Undav ↓ · Ermedin Demirović ↑

Substitution 3

Adam Hložek

Assist · Adam Daghim · 2–1

⚽

67'

Valentin Gendrey ↓ · Vladimír Coufal ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

Koki Machida ↓ · Mats Rots ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

81'

⇄

Leo Sauer ↓ · Ramon Hendriks ↑

Substitution 4

81'

⇄

Jamie Leweling ↓ · Josha Vagnoman ↑

Substitution 5

Andrej Kramarić ↓ · Adam Hložek ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

Fisnik Asllani ↓ · Tim Lemperle ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

1899 Hoffenheim beat VfB Stuttgart 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 16, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

On the scoresheet: Adam Hložek (13'), Maximilian Mittelstädt (48'), Adam Hložek (67').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.54 units (Brier 0.150).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	2.02	2.10	58%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.27	3.40	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	3.28	3.32	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.62	2.66	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.35	2.36	39%	Cashed	+1.35	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.86	1.80	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.06	2.10	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.84	1.81	39%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.50	1.44	64%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.57	1.59	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.88	8.00	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.31	1.29	64%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.32	1.29	61%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 0.5	20.50	25.64	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.01	95%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	3.75	4.05	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.10	1.07	81%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.54u	−27% ROI

1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled