FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 1:3

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.05 — +9.8% better than the market.

FSV Mainz 05 shows a slight home momentum edge with better recent form and a stronger points per game trend compared to Eintracht Frankfurt. The matchup hints at a balanced contest with both sides capable of creating chances, as reflected in their similar expected goals figures. Mainz’s home resilience and Frankfurt’s away challenges suggest a tactical battle where Mainz’s compact block and set-piece threat could be decisive.

Home form advantage and higher recent PPG
Close xG values indicate competitive attacking chances
Potential for a moderate tempo game with under 3.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 4.05 ✓ Cashed

AI 27% Implied 25% +3.05u

+305%

ROI on stake

Lineups

MAI 3-1-4-2 · EIN 3-4-2-1

MAI · 3-1-4-2 3-4-2-1 · EIN

9 Tietz ⚽

Subs used · MAI

45'

Konigsdorffer ↑ ·

Jae-Sung ↓

62'

Costa ↑ ·

Caci ↓

74'

Nakuzola ↑ ·

Mwene ↓

74'

Hollerbach ↑ ·

Becker ↓

85'

Ruoppi ↑ ·

Amiri ↓

Subs used · EIN

59'

Götze ↑ ·

Aseko ↓

74'

Ebnoutalib ↑ ·

Burkardt ↓

87'

Amaimouni-Echghouyab ↑ ·

Uzun ↓

87'

Chandler ↑ ·

Baum ↓

Statistics

MAI 1 – 3 EIN

55%

Possession (%)

45%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

16 · 1 – 3

⚽

Can Yilmaz Uzun

Assist · Jonathan Burkardt · 0–1

41'

▮

Raphael Onyedika Nwadike

Yellow Card

Nadiem Amiri (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

43'

Ransford Konigsdorffer ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

45+1'

⚽

Jonathan Burkardt

Assist · Jeremiaha Maluze · 1–2

Half-time · 1 – 2

59'

⇄

Mario Götze ↓ · Noel Aseko ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⚽

Can Yilmaz Uzun

Assist · Mario Götze · 1–3

Danny da Costa ↓ · Anthony Caci ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

70'

▮

Mario Götze

Yellow Card

74'

⇄

Younes Ebnoutalib ↓ · Jonathan Burkardt ↑

Substitution 2

Rael Nakuzola ↓ · Phillipp Mwene ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

Benedict Hollerbach ↓ · Sheraldo Becker ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

74'

Otto Ruoppi ↓ · Nadiem Amiri ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

87'

⇄

Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab ↓ · Can Yilmaz Uzun ↑

Substitution 3

87'

⇄

Timothy Chandler ↓ · Elias Niklas Baum ↑

Substitution 4

Phillip Tietz

Assist · Otto Ruoppi · 2–3

⚽

89'

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Eintracht Frankfurt won 3–1 away at FSV Mainz 05. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 11, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: Can Yilmaz Uzun (9'), Jonathan Burkardt (45+1'), Can Yilmaz Uzun (60'), Phillip Tietz (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.80 units (Brier 0.228).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.61	1.73	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.75	2.75	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.50	2.72	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.98	1.98	50%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Home Win	1.80	1.80	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.10	2.10	39%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.08	3.08	27%	Cashed	+2.08	Cashed
Away Win	4.05	4.05	27%	Cashed	+3.05	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.25	1.25	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.41	1.41	63%	Cashed	+0.41	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.40	1.40	61%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.37	1.36	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.80	5.99	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Under 0.5	16.00	18.87	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.15	1.10	79%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Draw	3.70	4.15	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.80u	−5% ROI

FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled