VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln 4:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.63 — +12.5% better than the market.

VfB Stuttgart faces 1. FC Köln in a Bundesliga clash where home momentum is lacking, given Stuttgart's recent losses contrasted with Köln's slight form edge. The match hints at a moderate tempo with over 2.5 goals favored, suggesting open play and attacking intent. Stuttgart's home advantage is tempered by their defensive vulnerabilities, while Köln's pressing and recent win could unsettle the hosts.

Stuttgart's home edge is limited by recent form
Köln's away resilience and pressing could create chances
Goal environment likely favors multiple scoring opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.63 ✗ Lost

AI 43% Implied 38% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

STU 4-4-2 · KOL 4-3-3

STU · 4-4-2 4-3-3 · KOL

26 Undav

8 Bergmann Jóhannesson

Subs used · STU

70'

Leweling ↑ ·

Führich ↓

70'

Demirović ↑ ·

Undav ↓

78'

Sauer ↑ ·

Khannouss ↓

78'

Hendriks ↑ ·

Mittelstädt ↓

90+2'

Spalt ↑ ·

Stiller ↓

Subs used · KOL

45'

Skhiri ↑ ·

Okon-Engstler ↓

45'

Moore ↑ ·

Thielmann ↓

75'

Bülter ↑ ·

Ache ↓

75'

Heskey ↑ ·

Maina ↓

90'

Rondić ↑ ·

Krauß ↓

Statistics

STU 4 – 1 KOL

58%

Possession (%)

42%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 4 – 1

Bilal El Khannouss

Assist · Josha Vagnoman · 1–0

⚽

39'

41'

▮

Jahmai Simpson-Pusey

Yellow Card

45'

⇄

Ellyes Skhiri ↓ · Paul Okon-Engstler ↑

Substitution 1

45'

⇄

Mikey Moore ↓ · Jan Thielmann ↑

Substitution 2

Half-time · 1 – 0

Maximilian Mittelstädt

Yellow Card

▮

51'

Grischa Prömel

Assist · Maximilian Mittelstädt · 2–0

⚽

60'

Jamie Leweling ↓ · Chris Führich ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

Ermedin Demirović ↓ · Deniz Undav ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

75'

⇄

Marius Bülter ↓ · Ragnar Ache ↑

Substitution 3

75'

⇄

Reigan Heskey ↓ · Linton Maina ↑

Substitution 4

Ermedin Demirović

Assist · Finn Jeltsch · 3–0

⚽

75'

Leo Sauer ↓ · Bilal El Khannouss ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

Ramon Hendriks ↓ · Maximilian Mittelstädt ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

81'

⚽

Marius Bülter

3–1

85'

▮

Tom Krauß

Yellow Card

86'

▮

Alessio Castro-Montes

Yellow Card

90'

⇄

Imad Rondić ↓ · Tom Krauß ↑

Substitution 5

Josha Vagnoman

4–1

⚽

90'

Yanik Spalt ↓ · Angelo Stiller ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+2'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 18, 8 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Bilal El Khannouss (39'), Grischa Prömel (60'), Ermedin Demirović (75'), Marius Bülter (81'), Josha Vagnoman (90').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.32 units (Brier 0.120).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.63	2.62	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.92	1.91	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.56	2.59	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.96	1.91	48%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Away Win	5.63	5.75	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.20	3.10	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.46	1.45	62%	Cashed	+0.46	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.15	1.15	78%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Home Win	1.49	1.46	57%	Cashed	+0.49	Cashed
Draw	4.80	5.00	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.35	4.50	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.35	1.33	69%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.09	1.10	86%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.20	6.49	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.18	1.18	57%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−5.32u	−35% ROI

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled