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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › SV Elversberg — Bayer Leverkusen

SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
Home · last 5 W W L D L
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug · 13:30
3:2
Full-time
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
L W D W W Away · last 5
Referee R. Hartmann
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 46% · book 2.42 ✓
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 57% · book 1.71 ✗
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 43% · book 2.24 ✓
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
1.12 – 1.93
Δ −0.81
Possession
33% – 67%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 2.42 — +11.5% better than the market.

Despite limited data on recent form and team metrics, Bayer Leverkusen is expected to hold a clear quality edge over SV Elversberg. The odds suggest a lively encounter with a leaning towards multiple goals, hinting at Leverkusen's attacking potential against a less proven home side. Leverkusen's experience and offensive threat could exploit Elversberg's defensive vulnerabilities, while the home team may rely on compact defending and set-piece opportunities to stay competitive.

  • Leverkusen's superior squad depth and Bundesliga experience
  • Potential for an open game with over 2.5 goals likely
  • Elversberg's home resilience could limit damage

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 2.42 ✓ Cashed
AI 46% Implied 41% +1.42u
+142%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ELV 4-2-3-1 · BAY 4-2-3-1
ELV · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BAY 20 Kristof 30 Gyamerah 31 Rohr 19 Pinckert 21 Günther 43 Keidel 8 Poręba 25 Petkov ⚽ 40 Onyeka 39 Campbell ⚽ 42 Mokwa ⚽ 1 Flekken 17 Vázquez 5 Badé 12 Tapsoba 3 Gutiérrez 6 Fernández 24 García 30 Maza 10 Tillman 9 Moreira 14 Schick ⚽
Subs used · ELV
65' Krattenmacher ↑ · Campbell ↓
65' Darvich ↑ · Onyeka ↓
75' Schnellbacher ↑ · Mokwa Ntusu ↓
75' Sirch ↑ · Gyamerah ↓
82' Le Joncour ↑ · Rohr ↓
Subs used · BAY
55' Quansah ↑ · Bade ↓
55' Medina ↑ · Fernandez ↓
55' Kofane ↑ · Lucas ↓
65' Hofmann ↑ · Tillman ↓
85' Boniface ↑ · Moreira ↓

Statistics

ELV 3 – 2 BAY
33%
Possession (%)
67%
1.12
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.93
11
Total Shots
21
6
Shots on Target
4
3
Shots off Target
13
8
Shots Inside Box
13
4
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
1
18
Fouls
15
73%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
3
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

20 · 3 – 2
L. Petkov
Assist · F. Onyeka · 1–0
⚽
8'
C. Campbell
2–0
⚽
9'
M. Rohr
Yellow Card
▮
29'
C. Campbell
Yellow Card
▮
41'
Half-time · 2 – 0
D. Mokwa Ntusu
Assist · L. Petkov · 3–0
⚽
46'
53'
▮
I. Maza
Yellow Card
55'
⇄
J. Quansah ↓ · L. Bade ↑
Substitution 1
55'
⇄
F. Medina ↓ · E. Fernandez ↑
Substitution 2
55'
⇄
C. Kofane ↓ · Lucas ↑
Substitution 3
M. Krattenmacher ↓ · C. Campbell ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
N. Darvich ↓ · F. Onyeka ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
65'
⇄
J. Hofmann ↓ · M. Tillman ↑
Substitution 4
L. Schnellbacher ↓ · D. Mokwa Ntusu ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
L. Sirch ↓ · J. Gyamerah ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
77'
⚽
P. Schick
Assist · I. Maza · 3–1
78'
▮
F. Medina
Yellow Card
F. Le Joncour ↓ · M. Rohr ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
82'
85'
⇄
V. Boniface ↓ · A. Moreira ↑
Substitution 5
N. Kristof
Yellow Card
▮
89'
90+1'
⚽
C. Kofane
3–2
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

SV Elversberg beat Bayer Leverkusen 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.93 to 1.12. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 11, 4 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.12 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Petkov (8'), C. Campbell (9'), D. Mokwa Ntusu (46'), P. Schick (77'), C. Kofane (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.71 units (Brier 0.228).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X 2.42 2.30 46% Cashed +1.42 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.71 1.73 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.24 2.10 43% Cashed +1.24 Cashed
BTTS No 2.39 2.41 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.60 2.75 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.55 1.52 61% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.44 1.42 64% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Away Win 1.57 1.57 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 5.00 5.13 25% Cashed +4.00 Cashed
AH Home 0 3.93 4.05 25% Cashed +2.93 Cashed
Draw 4.54 4.33 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.01 95% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Under 0.5 19.00 20.83 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.11 1.08 83% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Under 1.5 5.48 5.56 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.16 1.18 75% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.22 1.20 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.71u +10% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
ELV – BAY @ 2.42
+11.5%
Edge
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