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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Borussia Dortmund — Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 W W W W D
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug · 16:30
2:0
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L L W W Away · last 5
Referee F. Zwayer
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 58% · book 1.67 ✓
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 42% · book 2.31 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 52% · book 1.80 ✗
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.41 – 0.69
Δ +0.72
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks AH Away 0 at 6.18 — +9.9% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund are expected to hold a clear advantage at home despite limited recent form data. The odds suggest a lively match with a tendency towards goals, hinting at Dortmund's attacking edge against Hamburger SV's defense. The home side's familiarity with their pitch and likely pressing intensity could unsettle the visitors early on.

  • Home momentum and attacking potential
  • Visitors facing a compact, high-tempo challenge
  • Odds favoring an open game with multiple goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · AH Away 0
AH Away 0 @ 6.18 ✗ Lost
AI 18% Implied 16% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

DOR 3-4-3 · HAM 3-4-2-1
DOR · 3-4-3 3-4-2-1 · HAM 1 Kobel 26 Ryerson 3 Anton 22 Gadou 14 Beier 7 Bellingham 8 Nmecha 24 Svensson 19 Karetsas 9 Guirassy ⚽ 45 Konstantelias ⚽ 1 Fernandes 24 Capaldo 33 Bornauw 23 Torunarigha 18 Jatta 21 Remberg 6 Sambi Lokonga 37 Lemke 5 Adeline 11 Grønbæk 27 Daka
Subs used · DOR
54' Sabitzer ↑ · Konstantelias ↓
74' Mane ↑ · Ryerson ↓
74' Veerman ↑ · Nmecha ↓
74' Inácio ↑ · Karetsas ↓
84' Prates ↑ · Beier ↓
Subs used · HAM
67' Moffi ↑ · Daka ↓
67' Stange ↑ · Adeline ↓
82' Nadir ↑ · Torunarigha ↓
82' Poulsen ↑ · Jatta ↓
89' Philippe ↑ · Lemke ↓

Statistics

DOR 2 – 0 HAM
56%
Possession (%)
44%
1.41
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.69
20
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Target
3
10
Shots off Target
4
12
Shots Inside Box
3
3
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
1
13
Fouls
19
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
2
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

16 · 2 – 0
Serhou Guirassy
Assist · Konstantinos Karetsas · 1–0
⚽
9'
21'
▮
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Yellow Card
Giannis Konstantelias
2–0
⚽
45+1'
Half-time · 2 – 0
Marcel Sabitzer ↓ · Giannis Konstantelias ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
54'
Julian Ryerson
Yellow Card
▮
58'
67'
⇄
Terem Moffi ↓ · Patson Daka ↑
Substitution 1
67'
⇄
Otto Emerson Stange ↓ · Martin Adeline ↑
Substitution 2
Filippo Mane ↓ · Julian Ryerson ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
Joey Veerman ↓ · Felix Nmecha ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
Samuele Inácio ↓ · Konstantinos Karetsas ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
Samuele Inácio
Red Card
▮
77'
82'
⇄
Bilal Nadir ↓ · Jordan Torunarigha ↑
Substitution 3
82'
⇄
Yussuf Poulsen ↓ · Bakery Jatta ↑
Substitution 4
Kauã Prates ↓ · Maximilian Beier ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Daniel Svensson
Yellow Card
▮
85'
89'
⇄
Rayan Philippe ↓ · Louis Pepe Lemke ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund beat Hamburger SV 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.41 to 0.69. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 7, 6 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Serhou Guirassy (9'), Giannis Konstantelias (45+1'). Samuele Inácio was sent off in the 77' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.17 units (Brier 0.137).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.67 1.62 58% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.31 2.30 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.80 1.69 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.95 2.10 48% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.55 2.60 36% Cashed +1.55 Cashed
Away Win 8.50 7.25 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.45 1.46 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 3.25 3.00 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.18 5.65 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 5.25 5.24 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 94% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Under 0.5 17.00 16.95 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.13 1.11 82% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Under 1.5 5.13 5.35 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.08 1.10 82% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Home Win 1.33 1.36 63% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.10 1.12 63% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.17u −30% ROI
Value pick of the night · AH Away 0
DOR – HAM @ 6.18
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →