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Home › Spain › La Liga › Malaga — Espanyol

Malaga vs Espanyol 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Malaga
Malaga
Home · last 5 D D L L D
Kick-off
Fri 09 Oct · 19:00
1:1
Full-time
Espanyol
Espanyol
D W L L D Away · last 5
La Rosaleda · Malaga Referee Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 64% · book 1.80 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 1.97 ✗
Miss
AH Away 0
AH Away 0
AI 44% · book 1.96 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.77 – 1.14
Δ −0.37
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.80 — +14.7% better than the market.

Espanyol arrives at Estadio La Rosaleda with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite Malaga's home comfort. Malaga's defense looks vulnerable against Espanyol's sharper attack, while the visitors' pressing and transition play could exploit gaps. The match pace hints at a moderately cautious approach, favoring a tight scoreline.

  • Espanyol's superior offensive profile challenges Malaga's shaky defense
  • Home side's recent struggles dampen momentum
  • Likely a tactical battle with limited goal flow

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed
AI 64% Implied 56% +0.80u
+80%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MAL 4-1-4-1 · ESP 4-2-3-1
MAL · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · ESP 1 Herrero 3 Puga 20 Calero 15 Recio 31 Rafita 14 Rodríguez 10 Larrubia 18 Martínez 22 Lorenzo 11 Muñoz 9 Chupe 1 Fortuño 23 El Hilali 5 Riedel 6 Cabrera 3 Hartman 8 Expósito 10 Lozano 24 Dolan 28 Hernandez 15 Zaragoza ⚽ 9 Fernández
Subs used · MAL
62' Aznou ↑ · Puga ↓
62' Nino ↑ · Ruiz ↓
62' Dotor ↑ · Muñoz ↓
74' Merino ↑ · Calero ↓
82' Abaida ↑ · Andrés ↓
Subs used · ESP
57' Gonzalez ↑ · Coarasa ↓
73' Torrado ↑ · Zaragoza ↓
82' Hinojo ↑ · Jaén ↓
82' Milla ↑ · Jaén ↓
82' Fernández ↑ · Dolan ↓

Statistics

MAL 1 – 1 ESP
58%
Possession (%)
42%
0.77
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.14
15
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
2
9
Shots Inside Box
6
8
Corner Kicks
2
2
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
15
4
Yellow Cards
5
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match events

21 · 1 – 1
13'
⚽
Bryan Zaragoza
Assist · Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa · 0–1
24'
▮
Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa
Yellow Card
28'
▮
Bryan Zaragoza
Yellow Card
Carlos Puga
Yellow Card
▮
28'
Carlos Ruiz Rubio
Yellow Card
▮
41'
Half-time · 0 – 1
57'
⇄
Urko Gonzalez ↓ · Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasa ↑
Substitution 1
60'
▮
Omar El Hilali
Yellow Card
Adam Aznou ↓ · Carlos Puga ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
62'
Adrian Nino ↓ · Rafael Rodríguez Ruiz ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
62'
Carlos Dotor ↓ · Joaquín Muñoz ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
62'
Carlos Dotor
Yellow Card
▮
66'
73'
⇄
Álex Calatrava Torrado ↓ · Bryan Zaragoza ↑
Substitution 2
Izan Merino ↓ · Fernando Calero ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
82'
⇄
Roger Hinojo ↓ · Roberto Fernández Jaén ↑
Substitution 3
82'
⇄
Pere Milla ↓ · Eduardo Expósito Jaén ↑
Substitution 4
82'
⇄
Marcos Fernández ↓ · Tyrhys Dolan ↑
Substitution 5
Haitam Abaida ↓ · Pablo Martínez Andrés ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
82'
84'
▮
Clemens Riedel
Yellow Card
87'
▮
Roger Hinojo
Yellow Card
Adam Aznou
Yellow Card
▮
89'
Adrian Nino
Assist · Rafael Garrido Hierro · 1–1
⚽
90+3'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Malaga and Espanyol drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 9, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Bryan Zaragoza (13'), Adrian Nino (90+3').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.77 units (Brier 0.156).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.80 1.80 64% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
BTTS No 1.97 2.00 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.96 1.84 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.77 2.89 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.10 2.00 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.76 1.74 43% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.93 2.06 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.55 2.55 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.44 1.40 73% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.70 10.00 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.27 3.40 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.40 1.50 60% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.27 1.29 83% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Draw 3.20 3.23 28% Cashed +2.20 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 1.05 84% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.32 1.30 61% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.58 3.40 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.77u −22% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
MAL – ESP @ 1.80
+14.7%
Edge
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