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Villarreal vs Levante 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Villarreal
Villarreal
Home · last 5 L L W W L
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 16:30
3:1
Full-time
Levante
Levante
D W D L L Away · last 5
Estadio de la Cerámica · Villarreal Referee Mateo Busquets Ferrer
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.50 ✗
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 70% · book 1.61 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 49% · book 2.22 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.61 — +12.5% better than the market.

Villarreal hosts Levante in a tightly matched La Liga clash. Despite similar overall strength, Villarreal's home edge and slightly better attacking potential against Levante's defense suggest a controlled game. Recent form favors Levante, adding an interesting dynamic as Villarreal seeks to break their winless streak. The match hints at a moderate tempo with a leaning towards under 2.5 goals, reflecting cautious play and compact defensive setups.

  • Villarreal's home advantage offers a pressing edge.
  • Levante's recent form shows resilience and counter threat.
  • Both sides likely to prioritize defensive solidity, limiting scoring chances.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.61 ✗ Lost
AI 70% Implied 62% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

VIL 4-4-2 · LEV 4-3-3
Subs used · VIL
67' Moreno ↑ · Chakkour ↓
67' Mikautadze ↑ · Pérez ↓
79' Pépé ↑ · Buchanan ↓
79' González ↑ · Navarro ↓
87' Macià ↑ · Gueye ↓
Subs used · LEV
63' Musuayi ↑ · Romero ↓
63' García ↑ · Fernandez ↓
63' Ndukwe ↑ · Mandi ↓
72' Sánchez ↑ · Bardeli ↓
84' Ratkov ↑ · Rey ↓

Statistics

VIL 3 – 1 LEV
62%
Possession (%)
38%
21
Total Shots
6
7
Shots on Target
1
8
Shots off Target
4
13
Shots Inside Box
6
7
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
0
9
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 3 – 1
13'
▮
Aïssa Mandi
Yellow Card
Ayoze Pérez
Assist · Alberto Moleiro · 1–0
⚽
41'
42'
⚽
Iván Romero
Assist · Jeremy Toljan · 1–1
45+3'
▮
Luís Manuel Ferreira de Castro
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 1
Alberto Moleiro
Assist · Ilias Akhomach Chakkour · 2–1
⚽
54'
63'
⇄
Yanis Musuayi ↓ · Iván Romero ↑
Substitution 1
63'
⇄
Víctor García ↓ · Thiago Cruz Fernandez ↑
Substitution 2
63'
⇄
Ifeanyi Ndukwe ↓ · Aïssa Mandi ↑
Substitution 3
Gerard Moreno ↓ · Ilias Akhomach Chakkour ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
67'
Georges Mikautadze ↓ · Ayoze Pérez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
67'
72'
⇄
Daniel Requena Sánchez ↓ · Enzo Bardeli ↑
Substitution 4
Tajon Buchanan
Yellow Card
▮
79'
Nicolas Pépé ↓ · Tajon Buchanan ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
79'
Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González ↓ · Pau Navarro ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
84'
⇄
Petar Ratkov ↓ · Oriol Rey ↑
Substitution 5
Georges Mikautadze
Assist · Alberto Moleiro · 3–1
⚽
86'
Carlos Macià ↓ · Pape Gueye ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Villarreal beat Levante 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 6, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 1.

On the scoresheet: Ayoze Pérez (41'), Iván Romero (42'), Alberto Moleiro (54'), Georges Mikautadze (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.67 units (Brier 0.166).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.50 2.75 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.61 1.73 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.22 2.34 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.38 2.50 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.61 1.55 51% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.10 2.10 35% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.93 5.65 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 17.00 18.87 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.13 5.49 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.17 1.14 77% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Home Win 1.57 1.50 55% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.51 1.41 52% Cashed +0.51 Cashed
Draw 4.32 4.67 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 92% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
AH Away 0 4.05 4.33 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.14 1.10 73% Cashed +0.14 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.21 1.19 55% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.67u −33% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
VIL – LEV @ 1.61
+12.5%
Edge
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