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Home › Spain › La Liga › Atletico Madrid — Osasuna

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna 4:0: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Home · last 5 L W W W W
Kick-off
Wed 16 Sep · 17:00
4:0
Full-time
Osasuna
Osasuna
W L L L D Away · last 5
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 39% · book 3.05 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.10 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 51% · book 1.83 ✗
Total goals
4
4 · 0
Possession
68% – 32%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.19 — +1.7% better than the market.

Atletico Madrid enter this La Liga clash with a clear home momentum, showing more consistent form and a higher points-per-game ratio than Osasuna. Their compact defensive setup is likely to challenge Osasuna's attempts to exploit spaces, despite Osasuna's recent signs of revival. The match hints at a moderately paced game with a balanced goal environment, where Atletico's home edge and tactical discipline could limit Osasuna's attacking threat.

  • Atletico's stronger recent form and home resilience
  • Osasuna's sporadic away struggles despite occasional bursts
  • Moderate tempo suggests tactical caution from both sides

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.19 ✗ Lost
AI 24% Implied 24% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ATM 4-4-2 · OSA 5-4-1
ATM · 4-4-2 5-4-1 · OSA 13 Oblak 14 Llorente 21 Romero 24 Normand ⚽ 22 Grimaldo 7 Kang-In ⚽ 5 Cardoso 6 Koke 11 Lookman 15 David ⚽ 10 Baena ⚽ 13 Fernández 27 Arguibide 48 Yeboah 22 Boyomo 35 Santos 23 Bretones 21 Dubasin 29 Osambela 6 Torró 18 Moro 9 García
Subs used · ATM
68' Pubill ↑ · Romero ↓
68' Baldini ↑ · David ↓
68' Ortiz ↑ · Lookman ↓
85' Hjulmand ↑ · Cardoso ↓
85' Hancko ↑ · Grimaldo ↓
Subs used · OSA
59' Alfonso ↑ · Dubasin ↓
59' García ↑ · Moro ↓
60' Budimir ↑ · García ↓
71' Moncayola ↑ · Arguibide ↓
74' Castillo ↑ · Osambela ↓

Statistics

ATM 4 – 0 OSA
68%
Possession (%)
32%
27
Total Shots
3
11
Shots on Target
1
8
Shots off Target
1
19
Shots Inside Box
3
8
Corner Kicks
0
1
Offsides
1
7
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match events

17 · 4 – 0
Jonathan David
1–0
⚽
24'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Ademola Lookman
Yellow Card
▮
50'
Lee Kang-In
Assist · Jonathan David · 2–0
⚽
54'
59'
⇄
Enrique Barja Alfonso ↓ · Jonathan Dubasin ↑
Substitution 1
59'
⇄
Rubén García ↓ · Raul Moro ↑
Substitution 2
60'
⇄
Ante Budimir ↓ · Raul García ↑
Substitution 3
Robin Le Normand
3–0
⚽
63'
Marc Pubill ↓ · Cristian Romero ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
Giuliano Simeone Baldini ↓ · Jonathan David ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
Arnau Ortiz ↓ · Ademola Lookman ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
68'
71'
⇄
Jon Moncayola ↓ · Íñigo Arguibide ↑
Substitution 4
74'
⇄
Romain Del Castillo ↓ · Asier Osambela ↑
Substitution 5
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
Assist · Johnny Cardoso · 4–0
⚽
82'
Morten Hjulmand ↓ · Johnny Cardoso ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
85'
Dávid Hancko ↓ · Alejandro Grimaldo ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
86'
▮
Rubén García
Yellow Card
90+3'
▮
Abel Bretones
Yellow Card
Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 27 shots to 3, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Jonathan David (24'), Lee Kang-In (54'), Robin Le Normand (63'), Alejandro Baena Rodríguez (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.72 units (Brier 0.162).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 3.05 3.00 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.10 2.05 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.83 2.00 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.91 1.75 49% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.73 1.80 52% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.72 2.88 31% Cashed +1.72 Cashed
Away Win 6.50 8.62 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.42 1.40 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.12 1.08 80% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Home Win 1.40 1.39 60% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.19 4.00 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 4.93 6.49 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.20 4.55 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 13.00 12.99 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.02 93% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.21 1.22 76% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.16 1.10 57% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.72u −28% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ATM – OSA @ 4.19
+1.7%
Edge
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