Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid 1:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.91 — +14.1% better than the market.

Sevilla enters this La Liga clash with clear home momentum, boasting a perfect recent record and a higher points-per-game rate than Atletico Madrid. Their attacking edge and solid form suggest they can press effectively against Atletico’s defense. The balanced odds on over 2.5 goals hint at an open game with chances for both sides.

Sevilla’s home confidence and recent wins
Atletico’s resilience but lower recent form
Potential for a lively, goal-filled encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.91 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 52% +0.91u

+91%

ROI on stake

Lineups

SEV 4-2-3-1 · ATM 4-4-2

SEV · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · ATM

9 Ure

Subs used · SEV

55'

Ejuke ↑ ·

Diaz ↓

55'

Kochorashvili ↑ ·

Guridi ↓

68'

Romero ↑ ·

Peque ↓

80'

Gonzalez ↑ ·

Sierra ↓

Subs used · ATM

66'

Ortiz ↑ ·

Lookman ↓

66'

Gimenez ↑ ·

Llorente ↓

72'

Koke ↑ ·

Kang-In ↓

85'

Cardoso ↑ ·

Hjulmand ↓

85'

Mendoza ↑ ·

Baena ↓

Statistics

SEV 1 – 3 ATM

42%

Possession (%)

58%

0.96

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.93

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 1 – 3

⚽

A. Baena

Assist · Lee Kang-In · 0–1

26'

⚽

A. Lookman

Assist · P. Barrios · 0–2

33'

⚽

A. Baena

Assist · M. Llorente · 0–3

45+4'

▮

M. Llorente

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 3

C. Ejuke ↓ · J. Diaz ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

G. Kochorashvili ↓ · J. Guridi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

55'

66'

⇄

A. Ortiz ↓ · A. Lookman ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⇄

J. Gimenez ↓ · M. Llorente ↑

Substitution 2

M. Sierra

Assist · R. Ure · 1–3

⚽

66'

I. Romero ↓ · Peque ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

68'

72'

⇄

Koke ↓ · Lee Kang-In ↑

Substitution 3

A. Gonzalez ↓ · M. Sierra ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

85'

⇄

J. Cardoso ↓ · M. Hjulmand ↑

Substitution 4

85'

⇄

R. Mendoza ↓ · A. Baena ↑

Substitution 5

I. Romero

Yellow Card

▮

89'

G. Suazo

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

90+5'

▮

M. Pubill

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Atletico Madrid won 3–1 away at Sevilla. At half-time it was 0–3.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 12, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.93 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Baena (4'), A. Lookman (26'), A. Baena (33'), M. Sierra (66').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.99 units (Brier 0.174).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.91	2.10	60%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.70	1.83	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.74	1.85	60%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.92	3.06	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.10	1.91	39%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS No	2.01	1.89	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.73	1.73	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.30	3.80	38%	Cashed	+2.30	Cashed
Home Win	4.18	4.15	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.22	1.22	69%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	1.31	80%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	1.03	94%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.44	1.41	42%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Draw	3.48	3.40	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.31	1.25	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.45	3.19	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	9.01	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.99u	−18% ROI

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled